Sha Tin · 2023-12-17 · 05:05
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-12-17 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DUBLIN STAR, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with NORDIC COMBINED second and APEX TOP third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite ALL IS READY finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | DUBLIN STAR Closed strongly B-/V1/TT 1.22.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 1 | 22.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | NORDIC COMBINED Closed strongly B/TT J McDonald · W Y So | J McDonald | W Y So | 7 | 9.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 7 | APEX TOP B L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 10 | 6.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | PERFECT PEACH Closed strongly B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 2 | 6.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | STAR OF GLORY P-/B2 A Atzeni · C W Chang | A Atzeni | C W Chang | 11 | 19.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | MASTER OF LUCK Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 6.4 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | FORTUNE MASTER B/XB/TT K De Melo · J Richards | K De Melo | J Richards | 5 | 11.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 10 | ALL IS READY B/TT Z Purton · M Newnham | Z Purton | M Newnham | 3 | 4.2 | 7 |
| 9 | 9 | BEAT HOLLOW Led early L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 12 | 15.0 | 8 |
| 10 | 6 | YOO YOO KNIGHT BO- C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 6 | 9.6 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 1 | BAEBAE TSOI TT E C W Wong · C H Yip | E C W Wong | C H Yip | 9 | 16.0 | 10-3/4 |
| — | 8 | SOARING TOWER A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | ALL IS READY | 24.3% | 4.12 | 8 |
| 2 | 2 | MASTER OF LUCK | 13.1% | 7.63 | 6 |
| 3 | 7 | APEX TOP | 12.5% | 7.98 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | PERFECT PEACH | 11.8% | 8.45 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | NORDIC COMBINED | 9.8% | 10.25 | 2 |
| 6 | 9 | BEAT HOLLOW | 9.1% | 11.02 | 9 |
| 7 | 6 | YOO YOO KNIGHT | 6.9% | 14.42 | 10 |
| 8 | 11 | FORTUNE MASTER | 5.4% | 18.69 | 7 |
| 9 | 12 | STAR OF GLORY | 3.0% | 33.23 | 5 |
| 10 | 4 | DUBLIN STAR | 2.2% | 45.55 | 1 |
| 11 | 1 | BAEBAE TSOI | 1.9% | 51.97 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 223
PLACE
4 61
5 29.5
7 27.5
QUINELLA
4,5 978
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 269
4,7 269.5
5,7 113
FORECAST
4,5 2,346
TIERCE
4,5,7 24,301
TRIO
4,5,7 2,650
FIRST 4
3,4,5,7 2,354
QUARTET
4,5,7,3 71,289