沙田 · 2024-03-03
第 10場
2024-03-03沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由H Bowman策騎、D J Whyte訓練的BLUE MARLIN勝出，贏出SH。MAGNIFICENT NINE獲得亞軍；HUGE WAVE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.7倍大熱門MAGNIFICENT NINE跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BLUE MARLIN 後段發力 H 1.22.19 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 4 | 3.6 | SH |
| 2 | 11 | MAGNIFICENT NINE 後段發力 Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 3 | 2.7 | SH |
| 3 | 2 | HUGE WAVE 後段發力 H-/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 2 | 145.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | SUPERB KID 後段發力 CP1 K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 8 | 5.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | RIGHTEOUS ARION 後段發力 H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 6 | 8.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 13 | COMET SPLENDIDO 後段發力 TT B Thompson · C S Shum | B Thompson | C S Shum | 7 | 98.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 14 | WINDICATOR FAMILY 後段發力 H-/B1 A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 14 | 65.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 4 | ROMANTIC LAOS 後段發力 CP/H/TT A Atzeni · W K Mo | A Atzeni | W K Mo | 5 | 20.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | SAKEWIN 早段領放 CP-/TT- M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 11 | 114.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 5 | EXCELLENT FIGHTER 後段發力 B/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 12 | 19.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | EXCEL WONGCHOY K C Leung · P C Ng | K C Leung | P C Ng | 10 | 26.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | CITY THUNDER B1 H Bentley · W Y So | H Bentley | W Y So | 9 | 84.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 13 | 3 | SUPER WINNER TT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 1 | 21.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 14 | 8 | E LEGEND C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 13 | 39.0 | 17-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | MAGNIFICENT NINE | 37.7% | 2.65 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | BLUE MARLIN | 14.9% | 6.69 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | SUPERB KID | 14.6% | 6.86 | 4 |
| 4 | 12 | RIGHTEOUS ARION | 8.4% | 11.96 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | EXCELLENT FIGHTER | 4.2% | 23.73 | 10 |
| 6 | 4 | ROMANTIC LAOS | 3.9% | 25.33 | 8 |
| 7 | 3 | SUPER WINNER | 3.7% | 27.40 | 13 |
| 8 | 7 | CITY THUNDER | 3.1% | 32.12 | 12 |
| 9 | 10 | EXCEL WONGCHOY | 2.6% | 38.85 | 11 |
| 10 | 8 | E LEGEND | 2.6% | 38.93 | 14 |
| 11 | 13 | COMET SPLENDIDO | 1.8% | 55.42 | 6 |
| 12 | 9 | SAKEWIN | 1.1% | 93.62 | 9 |
| 13 | 14 | WINDICATOR FAMILY | 0.9% | 109.09 | 7 |
| 14 | 2 | HUGE WAVE | 0.5% | 185.06 | 3 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 36.5
PLACE
1 15.5
2 304.5
11 13
QUINELLA
1,11 51.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 1,186
1,11 22.5
2,11 749
FORECAST
1,11 123
TIERCE
1,11,2 11,787
TRIO
1,2,11 2,320
FIRST 4
1,2,6,11 1,755
QUARTET
1,11,2,6 48,381
全部彩池（另 4 項）
2ND TREBLE
8/4/1 6,459
8/4/11 946
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,13/1,2,11 581,228
9TH DOUBLE
4/1 675.5
4/11 57
SIX UP
5,11/3,7/1,8/5,8/2,4/1,11 3,400
11/7/1/8/4/1 3,143,110
1 [J Size] —
1 [Z Purton], 2 [H Bowman] —