沙田 · 2024-03-03
第 8場
2024-03-03沙田第8場，Class 2，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD。由A Atzeni策騎、D A Hayes訓練的NERVOUS WITNESS勝出，贏出2。INVINCIBLE SAGE獲得亞軍；CARROLL STREET獲得季軍。2.3倍大熱門GALAXY PATCH跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | NERVOUS WITNESS H2 0.56.66 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Atzeni · D A Hayes | A Atzeni | D A Hayes | 12 | 9.7 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | INVINCIBLE SAGE H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 4 | 4.7 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | CARROLL STREET SR/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte | Y L Chung | D J Whyte | 11 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | WHIZZ KID V/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 8 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | GALAXY PATCH B K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 9 | 2.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | WE ARE HERO V/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 2 | 20.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS SR/XB H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 10 | 34.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 2 | ADIOS TT C L Chau · F C Lor | C L Chau | F C Lor | 5 | 22.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | SUPREME LUCKY H-/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 7 | 11.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | DUKE WAI P K H Chan · P C Ng | K H Chan | P C Ng | 6 | 43.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | KURPANY B-/TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 1 | 43.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | PING HAI GALAXY B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 3 | 49.0 | 9 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | GALAXY PATCH | 47.2% | 2.12 | 5 |
| 2 | 5 | INVINCIBLE SAGE | 15.0% | 6.68 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | WHIZZ KID | 8.2% | 12.25 | 4 |
| 4 | 11 | SUPREME LUCKY | 5.0% | 20.18 | 9 |
| 5 | 2 | ADIOS | 4.7% | 21.43 | 8 |
| 6 | 8 | NERVOUS WITNESS | 4.7% | 21.47 | 1 |
| 7 | 9 | WE ARE HERO | 3.5% | 28.84 | 6 |
| 8 | 12 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS | 2.8% | 35.26 | 7 |
| 9 | 10 | CARROLL STREET | 2.6% | 39.05 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | PING HAI GALAXY | 2.2% | 44.50 | 12 |
| 11 | 1 | DUKE WAI | 2.1% | 46.54 | 10 |
| 12 | 6 | KURPANY | 2.1% | 48.02 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 97
PLACE
5 15
8 33
10 27.5
QUINELLA
5,8 313
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 90.5
5,10 56.5
8,10 214.5
FORECAST
8,5 771
TIERCE
8,5,10 5,737
TRIO
5,8,10 885
FIRST 4
3,5,8,10 1,003
QUARTET
8,5,10,3 28,249
全部彩池（另 2 項）
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,8/5,8,10 136,493
7TH DOUBLE
1/5 10.5
1/8 284