Sha Tin · 2024-03-03
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-03 was Class 2 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. NERVOUS WITNESS, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2, with INVINCIBLE SAGE second and CARROLL STREET third. The 2.3 favourite GALAXY PATCH finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | NERVOUS WITNESS H2 0.56.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · D A Hayes | A Atzeni | D A Hayes | 12 | 9.7 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | INVINCIBLE SAGE H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 4 | 4.7 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | CARROLL STREET SR/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte | Y L Chung | D J Whyte | 11 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | WHIZZ KID V/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 8 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | GALAXY PATCH B K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 9 | 2.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | WE ARE HERO V/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 2 | 20.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS SR/XB H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 10 | 34.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 2 | ADIOS TT C L Chau · F C Lor | C L Chau | F C Lor | 5 | 22.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | SUPREME LUCKY H-/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 7 | 11.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 1 | DUKE WAI P K H Chan · P C Ng | K H Chan | P C Ng | 6 | 43.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | KURPANY B-/TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 1 | 43.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | PING HAI GALAXY B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 3 | 49.0 | 9 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | GALAXY PATCH | 47.2% | 2.12 | 5 |
| 2 | 5 | INVINCIBLE SAGE | 15.0% | 6.68 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | WHIZZ KID | 8.2% | 12.25 | 4 |
| 4 | 11 | SUPREME LUCKY | 5.0% | 20.18 | 9 |
| 5 | 2 | ADIOS | 4.7% | 21.43 | 8 |
| 6 | 8 | NERVOUS WITNESS | 4.7% | 21.47 | 1 |
| 7 | 9 | WE ARE HERO | 3.5% | 28.84 | 6 |
| 8 | 12 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS | 2.8% | 35.26 | 7 |
| 9 | 10 | CARROLL STREET | 2.6% | 39.05 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | PING HAI GALAXY | 2.2% | 44.50 | 12 |
| 11 | 1 | DUKE WAI | 2.1% | 46.54 | 10 |
| 12 | 6 | KURPANY | 2.1% | 48.02 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 97
PLACE
5 15
8 33
10 27.5
QUINELLA
5,8 313
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 90.5
5,10 56.5
8,10 214.5
FORECAST
8,5 771
TIERCE
8,5,10 5,737
TRIO
5,8,10 885
FIRST 4
3,5,8,10 1,003
QUARTET
8,5,10,3 28,249
All pools (2 more)
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,8/5,8,10 136,493
7TH DOUBLE
1/5 10.5
1/8 284