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Sha Tin · 2024-03-03

Race 3

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 10 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-03 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MR ASCENDENCY, ridden by H Bentley and trained by P F Yiu, won by HD, with TELECOM FIGHTERS second and ALACRITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite ADEFILL finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.39.63
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 MR ASCENDENCY Closed strongly TT 1.39.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · P F Yiu 1 9.5 HD
2 1 TELECOM FIGHTERS Led early H Bowman · Y S Tsui 5 23.0 HD
3 6 ALACRITY Closed strongly PC/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 2 4.1 N
4 10 BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 3 14.0 1/2
5 5 APACHE PASS B/XB K C Leung · P C Ng 8 19.0 1-3/4
6 7 GALAXY WITNESS Closed strongly K Teetan · C Fownes 4 5.5 2
7 9 ADEFILL Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P F Yiu 6 2.9 2-1/4
8 4 NORDIC DRAGON Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 10 29.0 3-1/2
9 8 YOUTHFUL DEAL SR/TT B Thompson · F C Lor 9 20.0 4-1/2
10 2 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B Y L Chung · F C Lor 7 10.0 5-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MR ASCENDENCY2. TELECOM FIGHTERS+0.2L3. ALACRITY+0.05L4. BERLIN TANGO+0.5L5. APACHE PASS+1.75L6. GALAXY WITNESS+2L7. ADEFILL+2.25L8. NORDIC DRAGON+3.5L9. YOUTHFUL DEAL+4.5L10. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick ALACRITY (28.4%) finished 3rd — the winner MR ASCENDENCY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 ALACRITY 28.4% 3.52 3
2 9 ADEFILL 16.8% 5.96 7
3 7 GALAXY WITNESS 14.0% 7.13 6
4 3 MR ASCENDENCY 12.7% 7.89 1
5 4 NORDIC DRAGON 6.2% 16.13 8
6 1 TELECOM FIGHTERS 5.7% 17.52 2
7 2 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 5.2% 19.34 10
8 5 APACHE PASS 5.0% 20.16 5
9 8 YOUTHFUL DEAL 3.3% 30.76 9
10 10 BERLIN TANGO 2.8% 35.38 4
ALACRITYADEFILLGALAXY WITNESSMR ASCENDENCY — wonNORDIC DRAGONTELECOM FIGHTERSALL FOR ST PAUL'SAPACHE PASSYOUTHFUL DEALBERLIN TANGO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 95.5

PLACE

1 58

3 28.5

6 14

QUINELLA

1,3 922

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 270.5

1,6 111

3,6 63

FORECAST

3,1 2,031

TIERCE

3,1,6 7,651

TRIO

1,3,6 872

FIRST 4

1,3,6,10 3,844

QUARTET

3,1,6,10 101,190

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/1 170

2/3 339.5