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Sha Tin · 2024-03-03

Race 7

4YO GOOD 1800m Course B+2 13 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-03 was 4YO over 1800m, run on GOOD going. HELIOS EXPRESS, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Size, won by SH, with CHANCHENG GLORY second and ENSUED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.47.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 HELIOS EXPRESS Closed strongly 1.47.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Size 2 1.6 SH
2 8 CHANCHENG GLORY Led early B/XB K De Melo · K W Lui 13 52.0 SH
3 4 ENSUED Closed strongly R Moore · J Size 12 7.9 2-3/4
4 14 STAR MAC Closed strongly CP-/B1 K Teetan · D A Hayes 8 19.0 3-1/2
5 5 BEAUTY CRESCENT B-/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 14 59.0 3-1/2
6 2 HELENE FEELING CP-/B1/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 1 6.2 4
7 3 CHILL CHIBI Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C S Shum 11 25.0 4
8 7 UNBELIEVABLE K C Leung · F C Lor 7 111.0 4-3/4
9 6 SPEED DRAGON Closed strongly B M Barzalona · K W Lui 5 17.0 5-1/2
10 12 FALLON Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 3 33.0 5-1/2
11 10 ELLIPTICAL B/TT B Shinn · C Fownes 9 89.0 6-1/4
12 13 SIMPLY MAVERICK D Lane · P F Yiu 6 26.0 6-3/4
13 11 KA YING GENERATION PC A Atzeni · P C Ng 4 32.0 6-3/4
0 CALIFORNIA VOCE B Avdulla · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HELIOS EXPRESS2. CHANCHENG GLORY+0.1L3. ENSUED+2.75L4. STAR MAC+3.5L5. BEAUTY CRESCENT+3.5L6. HELENE FEELING+4L7. CHILL CHIBI+4L8. UNBELIEVABLE+4.75L9. SPEED DRAGON+5.5L10. FALLON+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick HELENE FEELING (26.8%) finished 6th — the winner HELIOS EXPRESS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 HELENE FEELING 26.8% 3.73 6
2 1 HELIOS EXPRESS 20.4% 4.89 1
3 4 ENSUED 11.8% 8.44 3
4 3 CHILL CHIBI 11.3% 8.83 7
5 13 SIMPLY MAVERICK 7.4% 13.55 12
6 11 KA YING GENERATION 4.4% 22.76 13
7 8 CHANCHENG GLORY 4.1% 24.31 2
8 6 SPEED DRAGON 3.1% 32.13 9
9 5 BEAUTY CRESCENT 3.0% 33.17 5
10 14 STAR MAC 2.9% 34.74 4
11 12 FALLON 2.4% 41.00 10
12 10 ELLIPTICAL 1.2% 86.41 11
13 7 UNBELIEVABLE 1.1% 89.65 8
HELENE FEELINGHELIOS EXPRESS — wonENSUEDCHILL CHIBISIMPLY MAVERICKKA YING GENERATIONCHANCHENG GLORYSPEED DRAGONBEAUTY CRESCENTSTAR MACFALLONELLIPTICALUNBELIEVABLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 16.5

PLACE

1 10.5

4 20.5

8 95.5

QUINELLA

1,8 397

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 25.5

1,8 134.5

4,8 367

FORECAST

1,8 462

TIERCE

1,8,4 2,757

TRIO

1,4,8 629

FIRST 4

1,4,8,14 2,204

QUARTET

1,8,4,14 36,019

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

7/1 85.5

7/8 689