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Sha Tin · 2024-03-03

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 11 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-03 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PRAWNS ELEVEN, ridden by H Bentley and trained by M Newnham, won by 1-1/2, with TORONADO PHANTOM second and O'LINER third. The 2.1 favourite LADY'S CHOICE finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.09.49
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 PRAWNS ELEVEN XB1/TT1 1.09.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · M Newnham 1 42.0 1-1/2
2 5 TORONADO PHANTOM P-/TT M Barzalona · J Size 2 6.6 1-1/2
3 3 O'LINER P-/TT H Bowman · T P Yung 8 27.0 2-3/4
4 10 MY FLYING ANGEL A Atzeni · F C Lor 5 11.0 3
5 2 NOT USUAL STAR H/TT C L Chau · W Y So 11 24.0 3
6 1 I GIVE K H Chan · P C Ng 10 8.0 3-1/4
7 9 FLOOF K De Melo · K W Lui 6 94.0 3-3/4
8 8 STELLAR SWIFT TT1 K Teetan · D A Hayes 7 4.7 4
9 4 SUPER FORTUNE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 25.0 5
10 6 LADY'S CHOICE H/V Z Purton · C W Chang 4 2.1 6-1/4
11 7 LEEDOX TT B Thompson · M Newnham 3 76.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRAWNS ELEVEN2. TORONADO PHANTOM+1.5L3. O'LINER+2.75L4. MY FLYING ANGEL+3L5. NOT USUAL STAR+3L6. I GIVE+3.25L7. FLOOF+3.75L8. STELLAR SWIFT+4L9. SUPER FORTUNE+5L10. LADY'S CHOICE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LADY'S CHOICE (24.3%) finished 10th — the winner PRAWNS ELEVEN was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 LADY'S CHOICE 24.3% 4.12 10
2 1 I GIVE 18.8% 5.31 6
3 3 O'LINER 11.7% 8.57 3
4 8 STELLAR SWIFT 8.6% 11.61 8
5 2 NOT USUAL STAR 7.4% 13.46 5
6 5 TORONADO PHANTOM 7.3% 13.62 2
7 10 MY FLYING ANGEL 6.4% 15.52 4
8 4 SUPER FORTUNE 5.2% 19.41 9
9 9 FLOOF 4.3% 23.46 7
10 7 LEEDOX 3.1% 32.71 11
11 11 PRAWNS ELEVEN 2.9% 34.13 1
LADY'S CHOICEI GIVEO'LINERSTELLAR SWIFTNOT USUAL STARTORONADO PHANTOMMY FLYING ANGELSUPER FORTUNEFLOOFLEEDOXPRAWNS ELEVEN — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 424

PLACE

3 59.5

5 20

11 74.5

QUINELLA

5,11 897

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 161

3,11 773.5

5,11 192.5

FORECAST

11,5 2,453

TIERCE

11,5,3 38,465

TRIO

3,5,11 5,263

FIRST 4

3,5,10,11 8,023

QUARTET

11,5,3,10 246,424

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

3/12/5 627

3/12/11 44,057

4TH DOUBLE

12/5 96.5

12/11 3,755.5