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Sha Tin · 2024-03-03

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-03 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BLUE MARLIN, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Whyte, won by SH, with MAGNIFICENT NINE second and HUGE WAVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite MAGNIFICENT NINE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.22.19
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 BLUE MARLIN Closed strongly H 1.22.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Whyte 4 3.6 SH
2 11 MAGNIFICENT NINE Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 3 2.7 SH
3 2 HUGE WAVE Closed strongly H-/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 2 145.0 2
4 6 SUPERB KID Closed strongly CP1 K Teetan · K W Lui 8 5.2 2-1/4
5 12 RIGHTEOUS ARION Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 8.5 3-1/4
6 13 COMET SPLENDIDO Closed strongly TT B Thompson · C S Shum 7 98.0 4
7 14 WINDICATOR FAMILY Closed strongly H-/B1 A Badel · D J Hall 14 65.0 5
8 4 ROMANTIC LAOS Closed strongly CP/H/TT A Atzeni · W K Mo 5 20.0 5-1/4
9 9 SAKEWIN Led early CP-/TT- M L Yeung · F C Lor 11 114.0 7
10 5 EXCELLENT FIGHTER Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 12 19.0 7-1/4
11 10 EXCEL WONGCHOY K C Leung · P C Ng 10 26.0 7-1/4
12 7 CITY THUNDER B1 H Bentley · W Y So 9 84.0 9-3/4
13 3 SUPER WINNER TT K H Chan · C H Yip 1 21.0 12-1/2
14 8 E LEGEND C L Chau · K L Man 13 39.0 17-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BLUE MARLIN2. MAGNIFICENT NINE+0.1L3. HUGE WAVE+2L4. SUPERB KID+2.25L5. RIGHTEOUS ARION+3.25L6. COMET SPLENDIDO+4L7. WINDICATOR FAMILY+5L8. ROMANTIC LAOS+5.25L9. SAKEWIN+7L10. EXCELLENT FIGHTER+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MAGNIFICENT NINE (37.7%) finished 2nd — the winner BLUE MARLIN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 MAGNIFICENT NINE 37.7% 2.65 2
2 1 BLUE MARLIN 14.9% 6.69 1
3 6 SUPERB KID 14.6% 6.86 4
4 12 RIGHTEOUS ARION 8.4% 11.96 5
5 5 EXCELLENT FIGHTER 4.2% 23.73 10
6 4 ROMANTIC LAOS 3.9% 25.33 8
7 3 SUPER WINNER 3.7% 27.40 13
8 7 CITY THUNDER 3.1% 32.12 12
9 10 EXCEL WONGCHOY 2.6% 38.85 11
10 8 E LEGEND 2.6% 38.93 14
11 13 COMET SPLENDIDO 1.8% 55.42 6
12 9 SAKEWIN 1.1% 93.62 9
13 14 WINDICATOR FAMILY 0.9% 109.09 7
14 2 HUGE WAVE 0.5% 185.06 3
MAGNIFICENT NINEBLUE MARLIN — wonSUPERB KIDRIGHTEOUS ARIONEXCELLENT FIGHTERROMANTIC LAOSSUPER WINNERCITY THUNDEREXCEL WONGCHOYE LEGENDCOMET SPLENDIDOSAKEWINWINDICATOR FAMILYHUGE WAVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 36.5

PLACE

1 15.5

2 304.5

11 13

QUINELLA

1,11 51.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 1,186

1,11 22.5

2,11 749

FORECAST

1,11 123

TIERCE

1,11,2 11,787

TRIO

1,2,11 2,320

FIRST 4

1,2,6,11 1,755

QUARTET

1,11,2,6 48,381

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

8/4/1 6,459

8/4/11 946

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,13/1,2,11 581,228

9TH DOUBLE

4/1 675.5

4/11 57

SIX UP

5,11/3,7/1,8/5,8/2,4/1,11 3,400

11/7/1/8/4/1 3,143,110

1 [J Size]

1 [Z Purton], 2 [H Bowman]