Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-03-03

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 11 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-03 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SUN OF MAKFI, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-3/4, with M M NEBULA second and CHARMING STEED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite CHARMING STEED finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.40.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly B/XB 1.40.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall 9 5.8 1-3/4
2 2 M M NEBULA Closed strongly PC/TT Z Purton · P C Ng 10 12.0 1-3/4
3 7 CHARMING STEED E/V/XB/TT B Shinn · C Fownes 4 3.5 2-3/4
4 9 CHIRON Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 1 6.8 3-1/4
5 11 GREEN LASER Closed strongly PC/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 8 17.0 7
6 4 DRAGON DELIGHT CP2/TT1 B Avdulla · D A Hayes 2 17.0 7
7 8 GET THE MONIES CP/TT K Teetan · M Newnham 3 8.3 7-1/4
8 1 ASIAN ONE PC/XB/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 5 6.3 9-1/4
9 6 BAEBAE TSOI Led early CP/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 6 14.0 11-3/4
10 3 RED MAVERICK Closed strongly TT- B Thompson · Y S Tsui 11 96.0 22-3/4
11 10 MILLENNIUM FALCON TT H Bentley · T P Yung 7 17.0 31-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUN OF MAKFI2. M M NEBULA+1.75L3. CHARMING STEED+2.75L4. CHIRON+3.25L5. GREEN LASER+7L6. DRAGON DELIGHT+7L7. GET THE MONIES+7.25L8. ASIAN ONE+9.25L9. BAEBAE TSOI+11.75L10. RED MAVERICK+22.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GET THE MONIES (15.1%) finished 7th — the winner SUN OF MAKFI was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 GET THE MONIES 15.1% 6.61 7
2 4 DRAGON DELIGHT 14.7% 6.81 6
3 9 CHIRON 11.8% 8.46 4
4 1 ASIAN ONE 10.4% 9.65 8
5 10 MILLENNIUM FALCON 9.8% 10.21 11
6 2 M M NEBULA 9.4% 10.59 2
7 7 CHARMING STEED 9.2% 10.82 3
8 5 SUN OF MAKFI 9.0% 11.16 1
9 11 GREEN LASER 5.2% 19.38 5
10 6 BAEBAE TSOI 4.5% 22.08 9
11 3 RED MAVERICK 0.9% 115.34 10
GET THE MONIESDRAGON DELIGHTCHIRONASIAN ONEMILLENNIUM FALCONM M NEBULACHARMING STEEDSUN OF MAKFI — wonGREEN LASERBAEBAE TSOIRED MAVERICK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 58

PLACE

2 38.5

5 19.5

7 15

QUINELLA

2,5 307

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 105.5

2,7 77

5,7 42.5

FORECAST

5,2 641

TIERCE

5,2,7 1,900

TRIO

2,5,7 329

FIRST 4

2,5,7,9 324

QUARTET

5,2,7,9 8,311