Sha Tin · 2024-03-03
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-03 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SUN OF MAKFI, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-3/4, with M M NEBULA second and CHARMING STEED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite CHARMING STEED finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly B/XB 1.40.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 9 | 5.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | M M NEBULA Closed strongly PC/TT Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 10 | 12.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 7 | CHARMING STEED E/V/XB/TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 4 | 3.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | CHIRON Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 1 | 6.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | GREEN LASER Closed strongly PC/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 8 | 17.0 | 7 |
| 6 | 4 | DRAGON DELIGHT CP2/TT1 B Avdulla · D A Hayes | B Avdulla | D A Hayes | 2 | 17.0 | 7 |
| 7 | 8 | GET THE MONIES CP/TT K Teetan · M Newnham | K Teetan | M Newnham | 3 | 8.3 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | ASIAN ONE PC/XB/TT A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 5 | 6.3 | 9-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | BAEBAE TSOI Led early CP/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 6 | 14.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | RED MAVERICK Closed strongly TT- B Thompson · Y S Tsui | B Thompson | Y S Tsui | 11 | 96.0 | 22-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | MILLENNIUM FALCON TT H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 7 | 17.0 | 31-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | GET THE MONIES | 15.1% | 6.61 | 7 |
| 2 | 4 | DRAGON DELIGHT | 14.7% | 6.81 | 6 |
| 3 | 9 | CHIRON | 11.8% | 8.46 | 4 |
| 4 | 1 | ASIAN ONE | 10.4% | 9.65 | 8 |
| 5 | 10 | MILLENNIUM FALCON | 9.8% | 10.21 | 11 |
| 6 | 2 | M M NEBULA | 9.4% | 10.59 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 | CHARMING STEED | 9.2% | 10.82 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | SUN OF MAKFI | 9.0% | 11.16 | 1 |
| 9 | 11 | GREEN LASER | 5.2% | 19.38 | 5 |
| 10 | 6 | BAEBAE TSOI | 4.5% | 22.08 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | RED MAVERICK | 0.9% | 115.34 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 58
PLACE
2 38.5
5 19.5
7 15
QUINELLA
2,5 307
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 105.5
2,7 77
5,7 42.5
FORECAST
5,2 641
TIERCE
5,2,7 1,900
TRIO
2,5,7 329
FIRST 4
2,5,7,9 324
QUARTET
5,2,7,9 8,311