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Sha Tin · 2024-03-03

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-03-03 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ORIENTAL SMOKE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by HD, with WINDCHEATER second and STRATHPEFFER third. The 2.1 favourite WINDCHEATER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT 1.09.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 4 4.8 HD
2 3 WINDCHEATER L Ferraris · M Newnham 9 2.1 HD
3 14 STRATHPEFFER B M Chadwick · D J Whyte 8 8.3 1
4 12 KING OBERON H K De Melo · K H Ting 1 19.0 2-1/2
5 9 SKY TRUST H/TT B Shinn · C Fownes 7 6.9 2-1/2
6 13 GANGNAM STAR TT K Teetan · P C Ng 6 19.0 3-3/4
7 4 GOLDEN DARCI P/XB H Bowman · D J Hall 5 12.0 3-3/4
8 11 TRAVEL GOLF TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 14 76.0 4
9 5 EASY SNIP B C L Chau · T P Yung 13 55.0 5-1/4
10 1 SOLAR UP CP-/B2/TT Y L Chung · C W Chang 2 44.0 5-1/4
11 8 PACKING WISHER TT B Thompson · C S Shum 3 165.0 6-1/4
12 6 FIREFOOT A Atzeni · W Y So 10 90.0 6-1/2
13 10 TELECOM BULLET H T Mo · Y S Tsui 11 286.0 9-3/4
14 7 FORTUNE COOKIES B1/TT1 K H Chan · J Richards 12 165.0 20-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ORIENTAL SMOKE2. WINDCHEATER+0.2L3. STRATHPEFFER+1L4. KING OBERON+2.5L5. SKY TRUST+2.5L6. GANGNAM STAR+3.75L7. GOLDEN DARCI+3.75L8. TRAVEL GOLF+4L9. EASY SNIP+5.25L10. SOLAR UP+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick WINDCHEATER (29.5%) finished 2nd — the winner ORIENTAL SMOKE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 WINDCHEATER 29.5% 3.38 2
2 2 ORIENTAL SMOKE 17.5% 5.72 1
3 14 STRATHPEFFER 9.3% 10.73 3
4 13 GANGNAM STAR 8.1% 12.33 6
5 9 SKY TRUST 6.4% 15.63 5
6 4 GOLDEN DARCI 5.7% 17.48 7
7 5 EASY SNIP 5.3% 18.83 9
8 6 FIREFOOT 5.3% 18.97 12
9 11 TRAVEL GOLF 4.6% 21.71 8
10 7 FORTUNE COOKIES 3.6% 27.70 14
11 12 KING OBERON 2.7% 36.50 4
12 8 PACKING WISHER 0.8% 119.27 11
13 1 SOLAR UP 0.6% 160.36 10
14 10 TELECOM BULLET 0.4% 242.22 13
WINDCHEATERORIENTAL SMOKE — wonSTRATHPEFFERGANGNAM STARSKY TRUSTGOLDEN DARCIEASY SNIPFIREFOOTTRAVEL GOLFFORTUNE COOKIESKING OBERONPACKING WISHERSOLAR UPTELECOM BULLET

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 48

PLACE

2 16

3 13

14 23

QUINELLA

2,3 55

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 26.5

2,14 60

3,14 40.5

FORECAST

2,3 146

TIERCE

2,3,14 622

TRIO

2,3,14 128

FIRST 4

2,3,12,14 466

QUARTET

2,3,14,12 6,968

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

5/2 282.5

5/3 34.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,7/2,3,14 4,942