沙田 · 2024-06-23 · 11:06
第 7場
2024-06-23沙田第7場，Class 3，途程2000米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由A Atzeni策騎、P F Yiu訓練的AWESOME FLUKE勝出，贏出1-1/4。SIMPLE HEDGE獲得亞軍；TURIN MASCOT獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.2倍大熱門SIMPLE HEDGE跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | AWESOME FLUKE 後段發力 P/TT 2.01.23 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 14 | 8.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 8 | SIMPLE HEDGE 後段發力 E Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 2 | 3.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | TURIN MASCOT 後段發力 PC/TT H Bowman · P C Ng | H Bowman | P C Ng | 6 | 9.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | WINNING DRAGON V-/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 7 | 21.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | PACKING HURRICANE 後段發力 B/TT H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 13 | 17.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 10 | BRAVEHEARTS 後段發力 B/TT L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 3 | 54.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | ILLUMINOUS 後段發力 V K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 11 | 8.2 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | UNIVERSAL HORIZON 後段發力 B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 9.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | WOODFIRE BRO TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 12 | 15.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 12 | ESCAPE ROUTE H A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 4 | 26.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 14 | ACCOLADE START B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 9 | 21.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 13 | DEVILDOM B M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 10 | 55.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 11 | ORIENTAL SMOKE 早段領放 B B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 1 | 12.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 14 | 9 | FLAGSHIP WARRIOR TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 8 | 11.0 | 13 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | ILLUMINOUS | 15.8% | 6.33 | 7 |
| 2 | 6 | AWESOME FLUKE | 13.9% | 7.18 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | SIMPLE HEDGE | 13.3% | 7.53 | 2 |
| 4 | 9 | FLAGSHIP WARRIOR | 8.6% | 11.63 | 14 |
| 5 | 3 | WOODFIRE BRO | 8.0% | 12.54 | 9 |
| 6 | 11 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 7.9% | 12.69 | 13 |
| 7 | 5 | UNIVERSAL HORIZON | 7.3% | 13.66 | 8 |
| 8 | 4 | TURIN MASCOT | 5.7% | 17.51 | 3 |
| 9 | 1 | PACKING HURRICANE | 5.5% | 18.25 | 5 |
| 10 | 2 | WINNING DRAGON | 5.2% | 19.33 | 4 |
| 11 | 12 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 3.1% | 31.79 | 10 |
| 12 | 14 | ACCOLADE START | 2.1% | 47.81 | 11 |
| 13 | 10 | BRAVEHEARTS | 1.9% | 52.03 | 6 |
| 14 | 13 | DEVILDOM | 1.7% | 58.98 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 87.5
PLACE
4 25.5
6 28.5
8 14.5
QUINELLA
6,8 193.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,6 145
4,8 71
6,8 77
FORECAST
6,8 490
TIERCE
6,8,4 3,090
TRIO
4,6,8 503
FIRST 4
2,4,6,8 2,213
QUARTET
6,8,4,2 40,770
全部彩池（另 3 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
6,10,12/4,6,8 295,882
6TH DOUBLE
6/6 390.5
6/8 40.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
4,5,8/6,10,12/Any Combination 48,514