跑馬地 · 2024-10-16 · 13:15
第 5場
2024-10-16跑馬地第5場，Class 4，途程1200米。由A Badel策騎、M Newnham訓練的SPICY GOLD勝出，贏出1。STORMING DRAGON獲得亞軍；BEAUTY DESTINY獲得季軍。1.6倍大熱門PERFECT GENERAL跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SPICY GOLD H/TT 1.09.24 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Badel · M Newnham | A Badel | M Newnham | 7 | 8.7 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | STORMING DRAGON B/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 9 | 7.1 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | BEAUTY DESTINY H/P/TT A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 8 | 55.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 9 | NEW POWER H C Y Ho · C W Chang | C Y Ho | C W Chang | 2 | 13.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | DRAGON AIR FORCE TT2 K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 4 | 20.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | PERFECT GENERAL TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 5 | 1.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | TOP SCORER B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 3 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 10 | LUCKY MAN SR-/CP1 L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 10 | 211.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 12 | STERLING WONGCHOY SR/XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 12 | 87.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | MY DAY MY WAY CP H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 11 | 239.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | GREENWICH TT M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 6 | 14.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | SUPREME WINNER B- Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 1 | 144.0 | 9-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | PERFECT GENERAL | 28.4% | 3.52 | 6 |
| 2 | 4 | STORMING DRAGON | 16.5% | 6.06 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | TOP SCORER | 12.7% | 7.89 | 7 |
| 4 | 6 | DRAGON AIR FORCE | 10.6% | 9.47 | 5 |
| 5 | 3 | SPICY GOLD | 9.0% | 11.12 | 1 |
| 6 | 9 | NEW POWER | 7.0% | 14.28 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | GREENWICH | 6.2% | 16.20 | 11 |
| 8 | 8 | BEAUTY DESTINY | 3.2% | 31.44 | 3 |
| 9 | 12 | STERLING WONGCHOY | 2.6% | 38.83 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | LUCKY MAN | 1.5% | 66.74 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | MY DAY MY WAY | 1.3% | 75.18 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | SUPREME WINNER | 1.1% | 91.70 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 87.5
PLACE
3 20.5
4 19
8 98
QUINELLA
3,4 204.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 54.5
3,8 327
4,8 283.5
FORECAST
3,4 457
TIERCE
3,4,8 11,667
TRIO
3,4,8 1,848
FIRST 4
3,4,8,9 2,297
QUARTET
3,4,8,9 50,109
全部彩池（另 2 項）
1ST TREBLE
4/10/3 4,949
4/10/4 1,115
4TH DOUBLE
10/3 1,018.5
10/4 257