Happy Valley · 2024-10-16 · 13:15
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-16 was Class 4 over 1200m. SPICY GOLD, ridden by A Badel and trained by M Newnham, won by 1, with STORMING DRAGON second and BEAUTY DESTINY third. The 1.6 favourite PERFECT GENERAL finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SPICY GOLD H/TT 1.09.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · M Newnham | A Badel | M Newnham | 7 | 8.7 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | STORMING DRAGON B/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 9 | 7.1 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | BEAUTY DESTINY H/P/TT A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 8 | 55.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 9 | NEW POWER H C Y Ho · C W Chang | C Y Ho | C W Chang | 2 | 13.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 6 | DRAGON AIR FORCE TT2 K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 4 | 20.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | PERFECT GENERAL TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 5 | 1.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | TOP SCORER B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 3 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 10 | LUCKY MAN SR-/CP1 L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 10 | 211.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 12 | STERLING WONGCHOY SR/XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 12 | 87.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | MY DAY MY WAY CP H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 11 | 239.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | GREENWICH TT M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 6 | 14.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | SUPREME WINNER B- Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 1 | 144.0 | 9-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | PERFECT GENERAL | 28.4% | 3.52 | 6 |
| 2 | 4 | STORMING DRAGON | 16.5% | 6.06 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | TOP SCORER | 12.7% | 7.89 | 7 |
| 4 | 6 | DRAGON AIR FORCE | 10.6% | 9.47 | 5 |
| 5 | 3 | SPICY GOLD | 9.0% | 11.12 | 1 |
| 6 | 9 | NEW POWER | 7.0% | 14.28 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | GREENWICH | 6.2% | 16.20 | 11 |
| 8 | 8 | BEAUTY DESTINY | 3.2% | 31.44 | 3 |
| 9 | 12 | STERLING WONGCHOY | 2.6% | 38.83 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | LUCKY MAN | 1.5% | 66.74 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | MY DAY MY WAY | 1.3% | 75.18 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | SUPREME WINNER | 1.1% | 91.70 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 87.5
PLACE
3 20.5
4 19
8 98
QUINELLA
3,4 204.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 54.5
3,8 327
4,8 283.5
FORECAST
3,4 457
TIERCE
3,4,8 11,667
TRIO
3,4,8 1,848
FIRST 4
3,4,8,9 2,297
QUARTET
3,4,8,9 50,109
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
4/10/3 4,949
4/10/4 1,115
4TH DOUBLE
10/3 1,018.5
10/4 257