Happy Valley · 2024-10-16 · 12:45
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-16 was Class 4 over 1200m. COLONEL, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by 1/2, with EMBRACES second and GOLDEN LUCK third. The 2.7 favourite SHINKANSEN finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | COLONEL B 1.09.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 7 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | EMBRACES TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 4 | 3.5 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | GOLDEN LUCK XB/TT L Hewitson · K L Man | L Hewitson | K L Man | 2 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | SHINKANSEN H/SR/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 1 | 2.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | CHAMPION METHOD TT A Atzeni · C S Shum | A Atzeni | C S Shum | 6 | 8.4 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | JOY COMING B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | CIRCUIT TEN H/P/TT B Thompson · W Y So | B Thompson | W Y So | 8 | 55.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | GLORY CLOUD TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 12 | 7.8 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | EXCELLENT PEERS H/XB M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 11 | 36.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | CIRCUS REEL B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 10 | 109.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | SUPER TREASURE CP Y L Chung · C W Chang | Y L Chung | C W Chang | 9 | 234.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | SEA AIR LEGEND H1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 3 | 183.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | EMBRACES | 26.5% | 3.77 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | GLORY CLOUD | 18.9% | 5.29 | 8 |
| 3 | 11 | SHINKANSEN | 15.9% | 6.29 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | GOLDEN LUCK | 13.0% | 7.67 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | CHAMPION METHOD | 8.0% | 12.47 | 5 |
| 6 | 3 | JOY COMING | 7.3% | 13.78 | 6 |
| 7 | 1 | EXCELLENT PEERS | 3.4% | 29.04 | 9 |
| 8 | 10 | COLONEL | 3.0% | 33.08 | 1 |
| 9 | 4 | CIRCUS REEL | 1.4% | 71.63 | 10 |
| 10 | 9 | SEA AIR LEGEND | 1.0% | 104.88 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | CIRCUIT TEN | 0.9% | 109.27 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | SUPER TREASURE | 0.7% | 153.72 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 139
PLACE
2 25.5
5 15
10 41
QUINELLA
5,10 235.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 61
2,10 150.5
5,10 82
FORECAST
10,5 687
TIERCE
10,5,2 4,841
TRIO
2,5,10 586
FIRST 4
2,5,10,11 223
QUARTET
10,5,2,11 8,799
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,6,8/2,5,10 11,412
3RD DOUBLE
4/5 52
4/10 1,287.5