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Happy Valley · 2024-10-16 · 11:10

Race 1

Class 5 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-16 was Class 5 over 1200m. WOODFIRE CHAMP, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C W Chang, won by N, with E GLORY second and VERBIER third. The 3.9 favourite VERBIER finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 WOODFIRE CHAMP CP/TT 1.10.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C W Chang 7 8.3 N
2 9 E GLORY B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 2 9.1 N
3 7 VERBIER B B Avdulla · C Fownes 3 3.9 1
4 11 PODIUM P-/TT2 M F Poon · D Eustace 4 10.0 1
5 12 WIND SPEEDER A Badel · Y S Tsui 10 20.0 1
6 1 HERO STAR TT H Bowman · K L Man 5 7.3 1-1/2
7 2 THE CONCENTRATION PC/TT1 L Ferraris · P F Yiu 6 40.0 2
8 3 FALCON COURT CP/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes 1 6.7 2-1/4
9 6 SUPER EAGLE TT K Teetan · W Y So 11 33.0 2-1/2
10 4 GORGEOUS VITALITY TT L Hewitson · F C Lor 9 31.0 2-3/4
11 5 SPEEDY CHARIOT B/TT Z Purton · D J Whyte 12 5.5 3
12 10 ALLOY KING V H Bentley · K H Ting 8 36.0 5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WOODFIRE CHAMP2. E GLORY+0.05L3. VERBIER+1L4. PODIUM+1L5. WIND SPEEDER+1L6. HERO STAR+1.5L7. THE CONCENTRATION+2L8. FALCON COURT+2.25L9. SUPER EAGLE+2.5L10. GORGEOUS VITALITY+2.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick VERBIER (19.9%) finished 3rd — the winner WOODFIRE CHAMP was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 VERBIER 19.9% 5.02 3
2 8 WOODFIRE CHAMP 14.1% 7.07 1
3 5 SPEEDY CHARIOT 11.8% 8.50 11
4 3 FALCON COURT 11.3% 8.82 8
5 1 HERO STAR 9.2% 10.87 6
6 9 E GLORY 9.2% 10.92 2
7 6 SUPER EAGLE 5.6% 17.72 9
8 4 GORGEOUS VITALITY 4.6% 21.58 10
9 11 PODIUM 4.4% 22.83 4
10 2 THE CONCENTRATION 4.0% 24.92 7
11 12 WIND SPEEDER 3.4% 29.67 5
12 10 ALLOY KING 2.4% 41.48 12
VERBIERWOODFIRE CHAMP — wonSPEEDY CHARIOTFALCON COURTHERO STARE GLORYSUPER EAGLEGORGEOUS VITALITYPODIUMTHE CONCENTRATIONWIND SPEEDERALLOY KING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 83

PLACE

7 15.5

8 28.5

9 27.5

QUINELLA

8,9 321

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 63

7,9 64

8,9 101

FORECAST

8,9 579

TIERCE

8,9,7 2,262

TRIO

7,8,9 325

FIRST 4

7,8,9,11 1,141

QUARTET

8,9,7,11 31,077