Happy Valley · 2024-10-16 · 11:10
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-16 was Class 5 over 1200m. WOODFIRE CHAMP, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C W Chang, won by N, with E GLORY second and VERBIER third. The 3.9 favourite VERBIER finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | WOODFIRE CHAMP CP/TT 1.10.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C W Chang | C Y Ho | C W Chang | 7 | 8.3 | N |
| 2 | 9 | E GLORY B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 2 | 9.1 | N |
| 3 | 7 | VERBIER B B Avdulla · C Fownes | B Avdulla | C Fownes | 3 | 3.9 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | PODIUM P-/TT2 M F Poon · D Eustace | M F Poon | D Eustace | 4 | 10.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 12 | WIND SPEEDER A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 10 | 20.0 | 1 |
| 6 | 1 | HERO STAR TT H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 5 | 7.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | THE CONCENTRATION PC/TT1 L Ferraris · P F Yiu | L Ferraris | P F Yiu | 6 | 40.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 3 | FALCON COURT CP/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes | A Atzeni | D A Hayes | 1 | 6.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | SUPER EAGLE TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 11 | 33.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | GORGEOUS VITALITY TT L Hewitson · F C Lor | L Hewitson | F C Lor | 9 | 31.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | SPEEDY CHARIOT B/TT Z Purton · D J Whyte | Z Purton | D J Whyte | 12 | 5.5 | 3 |
| 12 | 10 | ALLOY KING V H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 8 | 36.0 | 5-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | VERBIER | 19.9% | 5.02 | 3 |
| 2 | 8 | WOODFIRE CHAMP | 14.1% | 7.07 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | SPEEDY CHARIOT | 11.8% | 8.50 | 11 |
| 4 | 3 | FALCON COURT | 11.3% | 8.82 | 8 |
| 5 | 1 | HERO STAR | 9.2% | 10.87 | 6 |
| 6 | 9 | E GLORY | 9.2% | 10.92 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | SUPER EAGLE | 5.6% | 17.72 | 9 |
| 8 | 4 | GORGEOUS VITALITY | 4.6% | 21.58 | 10 |
| 9 | 11 | PODIUM | 4.4% | 22.83 | 4 |
| 10 | 2 | THE CONCENTRATION | 4.0% | 24.92 | 7 |
| 11 | 12 | WIND SPEEDER | 3.4% | 29.67 | 5 |
| 12 | 10 | ALLOY KING | 2.4% | 41.48 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 83
PLACE
7 15.5
8 28.5
9 27.5
QUINELLA
8,9 321
QUINELLA PLACE
7,8 63
7,9 64
8,9 101
FORECAST
8,9 579
TIERCE
8,9,7 2,262
TRIO
7,8,9 325
FIRST 4
7,8,9,11 1,141
QUARTET
8,9,7,11 31,077