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Happy Valley · 2024-10-16 · 14:20

Race 7

Class 3 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-16 was Class 3 over 1650m. JUMBO LEGEND, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by SH, with GLORIOUS JOURNEY second and CHAIN OF GOLD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite SIMPLY MAVERICK finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.38.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 JUMBO LEGEND Closed strongly H/TT 1.38.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes 12 13.0 SH
2 8 GLORIOUS JOURNEY Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 16.0 SH
3 4 CHAIN OF GOLD Closed strongly CP/H/TT K Teetan · W K Mo 8 5.3 1-3/4
4 12 RED MAJESTY Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · D A Hayes 5 24.0 1-3/4
5 11 MIGHTY STEED B Thompson · K W Lui 1 13.0 1-3/4
6 9 SOLEIL FIGHTER XB L Hewitson · D A Hayes 3 5.0 1-3/4
7 6 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B Z Purton · P C Ng 9 13.0 2-3/4
8 2 SIMPLY MAVERICK A Atzeni · P F Yiu 2 3.0 3
9 5 IVY LEAGUE SR/XB/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 7 32.0 3-1/4
10 3 FRANTANCK Led early TT M F Poon · P C Ng 4 12.0 3-1/4
11 7 THE HEIR B/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 11 19.0 3-3/4
12 1 CALIFORNIA VOCE TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 10 101.0 4-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JUMBO LEGEND2. GLORIOUS JOURNEY+0.1L3. CHAIN OF GOLD+1.75L4. RED MAJESTY+1.75L5. MIGHTY STEED+1.75L6. SOLEIL FIGHTER+1.75L7. AESTHETICISM+2.75L8. SIMPLY MAVERICK+3L9. IVY LEAGUE+3.25L10. FRANTANCK+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SIMPLY MAVERICK (24.1%) finished 8th — the winner JUMBO LEGEND was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SIMPLY MAVERICK 24.1% 4.15 8
2 4 CHAIN OF GOLD 16.3% 6.13 3
3 7 THE HEIR 9.5% 10.53 11
4 11 MIGHTY STEED 8.4% 11.91 5
5 12 RED MAJESTY 8.1% 12.38 4
6 9 SOLEIL FIGHTER 7.8% 12.82 6
7 6 AESTHETICISM 6.4% 15.62 7
8 8 GLORIOUS JOURNEY 4.6% 21.63 2
9 5 IVY LEAGUE 4.1% 24.30 9
10 1 CALIFORNIA VOCE 3.9% 25.33 12
11 3 FRANTANCK 3.5% 28.57 10
12 10 JUMBO LEGEND 3.3% 30.58 1
SIMPLY MAVERICKCHAIN OF GOLDTHE HEIRMIGHTY STEEDRED MAJESTYSOLEIL FIGHTERAESTHETICISMGLORIOUS JOURNEYIVY LEAGUECALIFORNIA VOCEFRANTANCKJUMBO LEGEND — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 133.5

PLACE

4 18

8 39

10 38.5

QUINELLA

8,10 886.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 116

4,10 102

8,10 253

FORECAST

10,8 1,813

TIERCE

10,8,4 9,705

TRIO

4,8,10 1,394

FIRST 4

4,8,10,12 4,342

QUARTET

10,8,4,12 114,495

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

1/8 343

1/10 1,110.5