Happy Valley · 2024-10-16 · 14:55
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-16 was Class 3 over 1200m. KYRUS DRAGON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by SH, with GUSTOSISIMO second and EASON third. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | KYRUS DRAGON H/XB 1.09.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 2 | 3.1 | SH |
| 2 | 6 | GUSTOSISIMO TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 7 | 8.7 | SH |
| 3 | 4 | EASON V-/TT- M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 8 | 18.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | OUR LUCKY GLORY TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 3 | 26.0 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | NORDIC DRAGON B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 12 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | SWEET BRIAR V/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 1 | 3.6 | 3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | YOUNG ARROW XB K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 6 | 6.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | SUGAR SUGAR B/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 11 | 22.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | VIVA CHALEUR PC-/TT2 K De Melo · P C Ng | K De Melo | P C Ng | 5 | 17.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | TALE OF PERTH B1 B Thompson · M Newnham | B Thompson | M Newnham | 4 | 86.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | POWER KOEPP E/B1 M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 10 | 88.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | ARMOUR EAGLE B/XB/TT A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 9 | 21.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | KYRUS DRAGON | 42.3% | 2.36 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | YOUNG ARROW | 12.5% | 8.01 | 7 |
| 3 | 7 | SWEET BRIAR | 11.4% | 8.76 | 6 |
| 4 | 1 | NORDIC DRAGON | 9.6% | 10.45 | 5 |
| 5 | 12 | VIVA CHALEUR | 4.3% | 23.49 | 9 |
| 6 | 6 | GUSTOSISIMO | 3.9% | 25.79 | 2 |
| 7 | 9 | ARMOUR EAGLE | 3.7% | 26.83 | 12 |
| 8 | 11 | OUR LUCKY GLORY | 2.9% | 34.50 | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | SUGAR SUGAR | 2.8% | 36.27 | 8 |
| 10 | 4 | EASON | 2.7% | 36.91 | 3 |
| 11 | 3 | POWER KOEPP | 2.4% | 41.60 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | TALE OF PERTH | 1.6% | 64.30 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 31.5
PLACE
4 46.5
5 14
6 29.5
QUINELLA
5,6 152.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 130
4,6 278
5,6 61
FORECAST
5,6 276
TIERCE
5,6,4 4,774
TRIO
4,5,6 1,346
FIRST 4
4,5,6,11 5,330
QUARTET
5,6,4,11 69,325
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
1/10/5 4,207
1/10/6 2,954
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
4,8,10/4,5,6 317,514
7TH DOUBLE
10/5 649.5
10/6 334
SIX UP
4,8/5,10/3,4/1,3/8,10/5,6 29,868
4/10/3/1/10/5 2,593,986
8 [M Newnham] —
6 [C Y Ho] —