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Happy Valley · 2024-10-16 · 11:45

Race 2

Class 4 1000m Course B 11 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-16 was Class 4 over 1000m. VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with ROARING BEBE second and SILVER SPURS third. The 3.2 favourite MODEST GENTLEMAN finished 6th.

Result

Official · 0.57.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE H1/TT 0.57.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · P F Yiu 7 29.0 3/4
2 7 ROARING BEBE CP/XB B Avdulla · D J Hall 3 3.9 3/4
3 5 SILVER SPURS SR/TT A Badel · C Fownes 1 6.7 2-1/4
4 6 HAPPY TANGO B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 10 7.0 2-3/4
5 3 BULB EMPEROR B/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 11 25.0 3
6 12 MODEST GENTLEMAN B/TT- M F Poon · C H Yip 2 3.2 3-3/4
7 4 BRAVE OF FRIENDS H Bentley · D J Whyte 9 86.0 4-1/4
8 10 MIU FA FA CP1/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 10.0 4-1/2
9 2 E UNIVERSE B2/TT L Hewitson · W K Mo 4 14.0 6
10 8 UNIVERSAL BLAZE H B Thompson · J Size 5 84.0 7
11 11 HAPPY HORSE H/P/TT Y L Chung · K L Man 8 10.0 7
1 MA COMET Z Purton · J Richards

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE2. ROARING BEBE+0.75L3. SILVER SPURS+2.25L4. HAPPY TANGO+2.75L5. BULB EMPEROR+3L6. MODEST GENTLEMAN+3.75L7. BRAVE OF FRIENDS+4.25L8. MIU FA FA+4.5L9. E UNIVERSE+6L10. UNIVERSAL BLAZE+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MODEST GENTLEMAN (32.5%) finished 6th — the winner VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 MODEST GENTLEMAN 32.5% 3.07 6
2 7 ROARING BEBE 18.0% 5.56 2
3 6 HAPPY TANGO 13.6% 7.37 4
4 3 BULB EMPEROR 7.3% 13.76 5
5 9 VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE 5.6% 17.71 1
6 11 HAPPY HORSE 5.4% 18.53 11
7 10 MIU FA FA 5.0% 19.97 8
8 4 BRAVE OF FRIENDS 3.8% 26.29 7
9 2 E UNIVERSE 3.6% 27.82 9
10 5 SILVER SPURS 3.6% 27.90 3
11 8 UNIVERSAL BLAZE 1.6% 61.12 10
MODEST GENTLEMANROARING BEBEHAPPY TANGOBULB EMPERORVICTORYTHIRTYTHREE — wonHAPPY HORSEMIU FA FABRAVE OF FRIENDSE UNIVERSESILVER SPURSUNIVERSAL BLAZE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 295

PLACE

5 24

7 16

9 67

QUINELLA

7,9 499.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 48

5,9 279

7,9 148.5

FORECAST

9,7 1,352

TIERCE

9,7,5 12,209

TRIO

5,7,9 1,165

FIRST 4

5,6,7,9 1,564

QUARTET

9,7,5,6 67,014

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

8/7 48.5

8/9 2,839

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

7,8,9/5,7,9 58,088