Happy Valley · 2024-10-16 · 11:45
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-16 was Class 4 over 1000m. VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with ROARING BEBE second and SILVER SPURS third. The 3.2 favourite MODEST GENTLEMAN finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE H1/TT 0.57.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · P F Yiu | L Ferraris | P F Yiu | 7 | 29.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 7 | ROARING BEBE CP/XB B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 3 | 3.9 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | SILVER SPURS SR/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 1 | 6.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | HAPPY TANGO B K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 10 | 7.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | BULB EMPEROR B/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 11 | 25.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 12 | MODEST GENTLEMAN B/TT- M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 2 | 3.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | BRAVE OF FRIENDS H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 9 | 86.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | MIU FA FA CP1/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 6 | 10.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | E UNIVERSE B2/TT L Hewitson · W K Mo | L Hewitson | W K Mo | 4 | 14.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 8 | UNIVERSAL BLAZE H B Thompson · J Size | B Thompson | J Size | 5 | 84.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 11 | HAPPY HORSE H/P/TT Y L Chung · K L Man | Y L Chung | K L Man | 8 | 10.0 | 7 |
| — | 1 | MA COMET Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | MODEST GENTLEMAN | 32.5% | 3.07 | 6 |
| 2 | 7 | ROARING BEBE | 18.0% | 5.56 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | HAPPY TANGO | 13.6% | 7.37 | 4 |
| 4 | 3 | BULB EMPEROR | 7.3% | 13.76 | 5 |
| 5 | 9 | VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE | 5.6% | 17.71 | 1 |
| 6 | 11 | HAPPY HORSE | 5.4% | 18.53 | 11 |
| 7 | 10 | MIU FA FA | 5.0% | 19.97 | 8 |
| 8 | 4 | BRAVE OF FRIENDS | 3.8% | 26.29 | 7 |
| 9 | 2 | E UNIVERSE | 3.6% | 27.82 | 9 |
| 10 | 5 | SILVER SPURS | 3.6% | 27.90 | 3 |
| 11 | 8 | UNIVERSAL BLAZE | 1.6% | 61.12 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 295
PLACE
5 24
7 16
9 67
QUINELLA
7,9 499.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 48
5,9 279
7,9 148.5
FORECAST
9,7 1,352
TIERCE
9,7,5 12,209
TRIO
5,7,9 1,165
FIRST 4
5,6,7,9 1,564
QUARTET
9,7,5,6 67,014
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
8/7 48.5
8/9 2,839
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
7,8,9/5,7,9 58,088