跑馬地 · 2024-11-20 · 11:45
第 3場
2024-11-20跑馬地第3場，Class 5，途程1200米。由L Ferraris策騎、M Newnham訓練的SUPER CHARIZZARD勝出，贏出1/2。WINNING HEART獲得亞軍；ALLOY KING獲得季軍。4.0倍大熱門RUBY SAILING跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SUPER CHARIZZARD PC 1.10.27 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 1 | 6.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | WINNING HEART B/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 2 | 11.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 12 | ALLOY KING B A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 5 | 30.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | VERBIER B H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 4 | 5.7 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | COSMO NAVIGATOR B K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 6 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | CHEER FOR SOUTH PC Y L Chung · F C Lor | Y L Chung | F C Lor | 10 | 36.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | RUBY SAILING TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 3 | 4.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | MORE RICE B2/TT C L Chau · W Y So | C L Chau | W Y So | 8 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | COUNTRY DANCER PC-/E1 B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 12 | 27.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | PODIUM TT M F Poon · D Eustace | M F Poon | D Eustace | 11 | 9.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP B J McDonald · P F Yiu | J McDonald | P F Yiu | 9 | 6.7 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | E GLORY B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 7 | 21.0 | 5-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | RUBY SAILING | 20.2% | 4.95 | 7 |
| 2 | 5 | VERBIER | 17.0% | 5.89 | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | SUPER CHARIZZARD | 15.5% | 6.44 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | WINNING HEART | 8.8% | 11.37 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | PODIUM | 8.7% | 11.47 | 10 |
| 6 | 1 | COSMO NAVIGATOR | 7.7% | 12.98 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP | 6.3% | 15.98 | 11 |
| 8 | 4 | COUNTRY DANCER | 5.4% | 18.69 | 9 |
| 9 | 8 | E GLORY | 3.5% | 28.89 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | CHEER FOR SOUTH | 3.3% | 30.12 | 6 |
| 11 | 11 | MORE RICE | 2.7% | 37.41 | 8 |
| 12 | 12 | ALLOY KING | 1.0% | 99.36 | 3 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 66.5
PLACE
3 31.5
7 21.5
12 86.5
QUINELLA
3,7 418.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 129
3,12 551
7,12 411.5
FORECAST
7,3 687
TIERCE
7,3,12 26,160
TRIO
3,7,12 4,856
FIRST 4
3,5,7,12 4,578
QUARTET
7,3,12,5 108,992
全部彩池（另 2 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,10,11/3,7,12 262,259
2ND DOUBLE
11/3 67
11/7 280