Happy Valley · 2024-11-20 · 11:45
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-20 was Class 5 over 1200m. SUPER CHARIZZARD, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by 1/2, with WINNING HEART second and ALLOY KING third. The 4.0 favourite RUBY SAILING finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SUPER CHARIZZARD PC 1.10.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 1 | 6.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | WINNING HEART B/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 2 | 11.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 12 | ALLOY KING B A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 5 | 30.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | VERBIER B H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 4 | 5.7 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | COSMO NAVIGATOR B K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 6 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | CHEER FOR SOUTH PC Y L Chung · F C Lor | Y L Chung | F C Lor | 10 | 36.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | RUBY SAILING TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 3 | 4.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | MORE RICE B2/TT C L Chau · W Y So | C L Chau | W Y So | 8 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | COUNTRY DANCER PC-/E1 B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 12 | 27.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | PODIUM TT M F Poon · D Eustace | M F Poon | D Eustace | 11 | 9.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP B J McDonald · P F Yiu | J McDonald | P F Yiu | 9 | 6.7 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | E GLORY B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 7 | 21.0 | 5-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | RUBY SAILING | 20.2% | 4.95 | 7 |
| 2 | 5 | VERBIER | 17.0% | 5.89 | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | SUPER CHARIZZARD | 15.5% | 6.44 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | WINNING HEART | 8.8% | 11.37 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | PODIUM | 8.7% | 11.47 | 10 |
| 6 | 1 | COSMO NAVIGATOR | 7.7% | 12.98 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP | 6.3% | 15.98 | 11 |
| 8 | 4 | COUNTRY DANCER | 5.4% | 18.69 | 9 |
| 9 | 8 | E GLORY | 3.5% | 28.89 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | CHEER FOR SOUTH | 3.3% | 30.12 | 6 |
| 11 | 11 | MORE RICE | 2.7% | 37.41 | 8 |
| 12 | 12 | ALLOY KING | 1.0% | 99.36 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 66.5
PLACE
3 31.5
7 21.5
12 86.5
QUINELLA
3,7 418.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 129
3,12 551
7,12 411.5
FORECAST
7,3 687
TIERCE
7,3,12 26,160
TRIO
3,7,12 4,856
FIRST 4
3,5,7,12 4,578
QUARTET
7,3,12,5 108,992
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,10,11/3,7,12 262,259
2ND DOUBLE
11/3 67
11/7 280