Happy Valley · 2024-11-20 · 12:15
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-20 was Class 4 over 1650m. VIVA GRACIOUSNESS, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with COURIER MAGIC second and SMART CITY third. The winner led throughout. The 4.6 favourite FOREMOST TEDDY finished 12th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | VIVA GRACIOUSNESS Wire to wire TT 1.40.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 6 | 10.0 | N |
| 2 | 11 | COURIER MAGIC Closed strongly B B Thompson · J Richards | B Thompson | J Richards | 2 | 5.9 | N |
| 3 | 1 | SMART CITY CP/TT M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 4 | 10.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 10 | SUPER BABY Closed strongly TT H Bowman · M Newnham | H Bowman | M Newnham | 12 | 9.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 7 | 5.2 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | STRONGEST BOY B/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 5 | 8.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | GLUCK RACER V-/H/B2 C Y Ho · W K Mo | C Y Ho | W K Mo | 1 | 9.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | MISTER DAPPER Closed strongly CP-/XB/V1 L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 11 | 27.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | U S S CONSTITUTION H/TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 3 | 38.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | LEEDOX Closed strongly CP1/TT A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 10 | 56.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | STAR LINE B B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 8 | 26.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | FOREMOST TEDDY V/TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 9 | 4.6 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | STRONGEST BOY | 33.0% | 3.03 | 6 |
| 2 | 5 | FOREMOST TEDDY | 13.5% | 7.39 | 12 |
| 3 | 4 | CAN'T GO WONG | 10.0% | 10.02 | 5 |
| 4 | 11 | COURIER MAGIC | 9.1% | 11.05 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | SUPER BABY | 8.3% | 12.00 | 4 |
| 6 | 3 | VIVA GRACIOUSNESS | 6.5% | 15.28 | 1 |
| 7 | 1 | SMART CITY | 6.5% | 15.44 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | GLUCK RACER | 5.4% | 18.53 | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | MISTER DAPPER | 2.5% | 39.70 | 8 |
| 10 | 9 | STAR LINE | 2.1% | 46.66 | 11 |
| 11 | 2 | LEEDOX | 2.0% | 50.67 | 10 |
| 12 | 6 | U S S CONSTITUTION | 1.1% | 93.98 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 106.5
PLACE
1 34.5
3 30.5
11 20.5
QUINELLA
3,11 346.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 137.5
1,11 96.5
3,11 108
FORECAST
3,11 777
TIERCE
3,11,1 4,777
TRIO
1,3,11 877
FIRST 4
1,3,10,11 2,192
QUARTET
3,11,1,10 61,147
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
7/3 774
7/11 63