Happy Valley · 2024-11-20 · 14:30
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-20 was Class 2 over 1200m. BEAUTY CHARGE, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with WONDER KIT second and RAGING BLIZZARD third. The 2.2 favourite RAGING BLIZZARD finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | BEAUTY CHARGE TT 1.09.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 7 | 26.0 | N |
| 2 | 10 | WONDER KIT B L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 1 | 20.0 | N |
| 3 | 7 | RAGING BLIZZARD P Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 4 | 2.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | SING DRAGON H Bentley · M Newnham | H Bentley | M Newnham | 3 | 7.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | GORGEOUS WIN TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 8 | 9.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | SON PAK FU B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 15.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | I GIVE M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 6 | 29.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | GLORY ELITE H K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 10 | 9.3 | 4 |
| 9 | 3 | BUNDLE OF CHARM A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 5 | 28.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | HARMONY N BLESSED B/TT K De Melo · D A Hayes | K De Melo | D A Hayes | 11 | 45.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | JAMES TAK CP/TT1 C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 12 | 64.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 4 | LUCKY ENCOUNTER A Atzeni · D A Hayes | A Atzeni | D A Hayes | 2 | 5.9 | 7-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | RAGING BLIZZARD | 28.4% | 3.53 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | LUCKY ENCOUNTER | 15.3% | 6.53 | 12 |
| 3 | 6 | GORGEOUS WIN | 10.0% | 10.03 | 5 |
| 4 | 9 | GLORY ELITE | 9.7% | 10.28 | 8 |
| 5 | 11 | SING DRAGON | 7.7% | 12.90 | 4 |
| 6 | 12 | I GIVE | 6.9% | 14.44 | 7 |
| 7 | 10 | WONDER KIT | 4.4% | 22.84 | 2 |
| 8 | 2 | HARMONY N BLESSED | 4.2% | 23.88 | 10 |
| 9 | 8 | JAMES TAK | 4.2% | 23.94 | 11 |
| 10 | 3 | BUNDLE OF CHARM | 3.7% | 27.14 | 9 |
| 11 | 1 | SON PAK FU | 3.1% | 31.99 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | BEAUTY CHARGE | 2.4% | 41.51 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 265
PLACE
5 72.5
7 11.5
10 45
QUINELLA
5,10 3,164.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 106.5
5,10 617.5
7,10 67
FORECAST
5,10 5,255
TIERCE
5,10,7 24,244
TRIO
5,7,10 1,378
FIRST 4
5,7,10,11 1,515
QUARTET
5,10,7,11 86,835
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
4/5 3,028
4/10 716.5