Happy Valley · 2024-11-20 · 18:41
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | CERVIN Closed strongly TT 1.40.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 3 | 12.0 | N |
| 2 | 7 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly XB A Hamelin · C Fownes | A Hamelin | C Fownes | 7 | 10.0 | N |
| 3 | 1 | IVICTORIAM Closed strongly B-/XB-/TT H Bowman · J Richards | H Bowman | J Richards | 12 | 38.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | COOL BLUE Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · W K Mo | K Teetan | W K Mo | 11 | 24.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | WINNING SEVEN Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 9 | 12.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 10 | MEDIC ELITE PC/TT A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 2 | 2.9 | 5 |
| 7 | 12 | RED MAVERICK Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 10 | 7.9 | 5 |
| 8 | 3 | THE CONCENTRATION PC/TT B Avdulla · P F Yiu | B Avdulla | P F Yiu | 5 | 17.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | SUPERB MOVE B/TT L Ferraris · C H Yip | L Ferraris | C H Yip | 4 | 6.8 | 7 |
| 10 | 4 | RIGHT HONOURABLE B/XB M Chadwick · M Newnham | M Chadwick | M Newnham | 8 | 8.7 | 7 |
| 11 | 2 | TRIPLE BLISS Led early CP K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 1 | 64.0 | 16 |
| 12 | 5 | FALCON COURT B-/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 6 | 11.0 | 27 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-20 was Class 5 over 1650m. CERVIN, ridden by K De Melo and trained by W Y So, won by N, with INVINCIBLE MISSILE second and IVICTORIAM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite MEDIC ELITE finished 6th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | SUPERB MOVE | 20.5% | 4.88 | 9 |
| 2 | 6 | CERVIN | 17.5% | 5.73 | 1 |
| 3 | 10 | MEDIC ELITE | 15.6% | 6.42 | 6 |
| 4 | 4 | RIGHT HONOURABLE | 10.7% | 9.36 | 10 |
| 5 | 12 | RED MAVERICK | 7.7% | 13.00 | 7 |
| 6 | 5 | FALCON COURT | 7.5% | 13.26 | 12 |
| 7 | 9 | COOL BLUE | 6.3% | 15.90 | 4 |
| 8 | 8 | WINNING SEVEN | 3.9% | 25.68 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 3.8% | 26.57 | 2 |
| 10 | 1 | IVICTORIAM | 3.2% | 31.51 | 3 |
| 11 | 3 | THE CONCENTRATION | 2.5% | 40.36 | 8 |
| 12 | 2 | TRIPLE BLISS | 0.9% | 107.48 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 120.5
PLACE
1 100.5
6 32
7 30
QUINELLA
6,7 689.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 551.5
1,7 612
6,7 206
FORECAST
6,7 1,416
TIERCE
6,7,1 35,793
TRIO
1,6,7 6,757
FIRST 4
1,6,7,9 17,916
QUARTET
6,7,1,9 501,221