Happy Valley · 2024-11-20 · 12:45
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-20 was Class 4 over 1200m. STORMING DRAGON, ridden by J McDonald and trained by J Richards, won by 1/2, with AFFIRM second and SPICY SPANGLE third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | STORMING DRAGON B-/V1/TT 1.09.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · J Richards | J McDonald | J Richards | 5 | 2.1 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 10 | AFFIRM V/TT L Ferraris · P F Yiu | L Ferraris | P F Yiu | 4 | 4.9 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 6 | SPICY SPANGLE TT E C W Wong · P C Ng | E C W Wong | P C Ng | 3 | 7.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | TRIUMPHANT MORE B Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 8 | 4.4 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | EXUBERANT B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 2 | 16.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | LUCKY MAN CP-/H/BO1 L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 11 | 33.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | MACANESE MASTER Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 6 | 137.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | E UNIVERSE B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 10 | 78.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | SPORTIC WARRIOR H1/TT- M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 7 | 195.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | SPEED SWORD TT M F Poon · M Newnham | M F Poon | M Newnham | 12 | 32.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | FUNG B/TT B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 1 | 43.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | CAMP FIRE H/SR1/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 9 | 66.0 | 10-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | TRIUMPHANT MORE | 29.5% | 3.39 | 4 |
| 2 | 2 | STORMING DRAGON | 25.9% | 3.86 | 1 |
| 3 | 10 | AFFIRM | 14.5% | 6.88 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | SPICY SPANGLE | 10.8% | 9.26 | 3 |
| 5 | 11 | SPEED SWORD | 6.6% | 15.23 | 10 |
| 6 | 4 | EXUBERANT | 3.4% | 29.43 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | CAMP FIRE | 2.9% | 34.53 | 12 |
| 8 | 9 | LUCKY MAN | 2.3% | 43.90 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | E UNIVERSE | 1.9% | 53.14 | 8 |
| 10 | 12 | FUNG | 1.1% | 90.23 | 11 |
| 11 | 5 | MACANESE MASTER | 0.6% | 180.90 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | SPORTIC WARRIOR | 0.5% | 185.61 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 21
PLACE
2 10.1
6 20.5
10 16
QUINELLA
2,10 47.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 29.5
2,10 21
6,10 49
FORECAST
2,10 75
TIERCE
2,10,6 286
TRIO
2,6,10 90
FIRST 4
1,2,6,10 64
QUARTET
2,10,6,1 1,183
All pools (3 more)
1ST TREBLE
7/3/2 2,780
7/3/10 768
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,11/2,6,10 13,515
4TH DOUBLE
3/2 247
3/10 83.5