Happy Valley · 2024-11-20 · 15:05
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-11-20 was Class 3 over 1200m. GUSTOSISIMO, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by HD, with EASON second and DENFIELD third. Victory came as the 4.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | GUSTOSISIMO TT 1.10.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 10 | 4.4 | HD |
| 2 | 3 | EASON M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 2 | 9.4 | HD |
| 3 | 6 | DENFIELD TT J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 1 | 5.5 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | OUR LUCKY GLORY TT A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 7 | 35.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | BEAUTY INFINITY H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 4 | 8.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | GOLDEN LUCK XB/TT L Hewitson · K L Man | L Hewitson | K L Man | 12 | 28.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 10 | SOVEREIGN FUND B B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 5 | 63.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | YOUNG EMPEROR TT L Ferraris · D Eustace | L Ferraris | D Eustace | 3 | 5.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 5 | PRAWNS ELEVEN XB/TT H Bentley · M Newnham | H Bentley | M Newnham | 6 | 6.3 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | GOLDEN EMPIRE B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 36.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | NEARLY FINE TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 11 | 136.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | ROMANTIC SON CP Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 9 | 7.7 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | DENFIELD | 25.8% | 3.87 | 3 |
| 2 | 8 | ROMANTIC SON | 20.2% | 4.95 | 12 |
| 3 | 2 | YOUNG EMPEROR | 11.9% | 8.43 | 8 |
| 4 | 9 | BEAUTY INFINITY | 9.7% | 10.34 | 5 |
| 5 | 4 | GUSTOSISIMO | 8.0% | 12.51 | 1 |
| 6 | 3 | EASON | 6.5% | 15.33 | 2 |
| 7 | 5 | PRAWNS ELEVEN | 5.5% | 18.06 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | GOLDEN EMPIRE | 3.5% | 28.56 | 10 |
| 9 | 12 | GOLDEN LUCK | 2.7% | 36.51 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | OUR LUCKY GLORY | 2.6% | 38.22 | 4 |
| 11 | 1 | NEARLY FINE | 2.5% | 40.65 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | SOVEREIGN FUND | 1.1% | 91.47 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 44
PLACE
3 25
4 22
6 21
QUINELLA
3,4 361
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 111
3,6 77.5
4,6 79.5
FORECAST
4,3 549
TIERCE
4,3,6 3,370
TRIO
3,4,6 633
FIRST 4
3,4,6,11 2,001
QUARTET
4,3,6,11 33,396
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
4/5/3 6,816
4/5/4 10,445
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
5,7,10/3,4,6 142,374
8TH DOUBLE
5/3 409.5
5/4 997
SIX UP
3/2/4/4/5/4 1,115,379
3,11/2,10/4,5/4,12/5,10/3,4 38,932
2 [J McDonald] —
3 [A S Cruz] —