沙田 · 2024-12-08 · 10:10
第 10場
2024-12-08沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1400米。由J Moreira策騎、K W Lui訓練的PACKING HERMOD勝出，贏出N。RUBYLOT獲得亞軍；CHIU CHOW SPIRIT獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以1.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | PACKING HERMOD 後段發力 1.21.29 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 10 | 1.8 | N |
| 2 | 12 | RUBYLOT 後段發力 CP2 L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 11 | 8.2 | N |
| 3 | 6 | CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 後段發力 B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 6 | 20.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | DROMBEG BANNER 早段領放 A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 14 | 9.6 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | YOUNG CHAMPION 後段發力 E1 K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 7 | 5.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | SING DRAGON A Badel · M Newnham | A Badel | M Newnham | 2 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | PACKING TREADMILL CP L Ferraris · K W Lui | L Ferraris | K W Lui | 3 | 53.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | FLAMING RABBIT B2/SR2 M Barzalona · D J Whyte | M Barzalona | D J Whyte | 8 | 58.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY 後段發力 TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 1 | 38.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 14 | KEEFY M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 12 | 116.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | SON PAK FU B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 55.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | TELECOM FIGHTERS K De Melo · Y S Tsui | K De Melo | Y S Tsui | 13 | 181.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 13 | 2 | HARMONY GREAT TT M L Yeung · C S Shum | M L Yeung | C S Shum | 5 | 199.0 | 14-1/4 |
| 14 | 13 | ALLCASH TT1 A Pouchin · C S Shum | A Pouchin | C S Shum | 4 | 26.0 | 24 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | PACKING HERMOD | 45.4% | 2.20 | 1 |
| 2 | 11 | SING DRAGON | 9.6% | 10.37 | 6 |
| 3 | 9 | YOUNG CHAMPION | 9.2% | 10.87 | 5 |
| 4 | 12 | RUBYLOT | 7.3% | 13.77 | 2 |
| 5 | 4 | DROMBEG BANNER | 4.7% | 21.17 | 4 |
| 6 | 13 | ALLCASH | 3.3% | 30.26 | 14 |
| 7 | 6 | CHIU CHOW SPIRIT | 3.3% | 30.69 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | PACKING TREADMILL | 3.2% | 31.09 | 7 |
| 9 | 1 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY | 3.0% | 32.92 | 9 |
| 10 | 7 | TELECOM FIGHTERS | 2.9% | 34.74 | 12 |
| 11 | 14 | KEEFY | 2.8% | 36.01 | 10 |
| 12 | 3 | SON PAK FU | 2.5% | 39.54 | 11 |
| 13 | 8 | FLAMING RABBIT | 2.3% | 43.97 | 8 |
| 14 | 2 | HARMONY GREAT | 0.5% | 218.06 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 18.5
PLACE
6 38
10 11
12 22
QUINELLA
10,12 81
QUINELLA PLACE
6,10 62
6,12 183
10,12 33.5
FORECAST
10,12 122
TIERCE
10,12,6 1,069
TRIO
6,10,12 385
FIRST 4
4,6,10,12 451
QUARTET
10,12,6,4 5,263
全部彩池（另 4 項）
2ND TREBLE
1/13/10 97
1/13/12 74
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
5,6,13/6,10,12 8,807
9TH DOUBLE
13/10 96
13/12 69.5
SIX UP
1/10/2/1/13/10 1,856
1,12/3,10/1,2/1,9/6,13/10,12 333
1 [J McDonald] —
2 [K W Lui] —