沙田 · 2025-01-12 · 05:05
第 1場
Class 5
1200m
12 匹出賽
2025-01-12沙田第1場，Class 5，途程1200米。由L Ferraris策騎、T P Yung訓練的EXCELLENT DADDY勝出，贏出N。PATCH OF WATCH獲得亞軍；SKY PROPHET獲得季軍。4.7倍大熱門SKY PROPHET跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | EXCELLENT DADDY CP/TT 1.09.76 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Ferraris · T P Yung | L Ferraris | T P Yung | 6 | 8.4 | N |
| 2 | 11 | PATCH OF WATCH B/TT P N Wong · K L Man | P N Wong | K L Man | 2 | 5.0 | N |
| 3 | 1 | SKY PROPHET TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 1 | 4.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | FALCON COURT B/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 8 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 3 | CURRAHEE CP/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 7 | 20.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | SMART LEADER PC/XB/TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 5 | 18.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | CHEER FOR SOUTH PC M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 10 | 9.2 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | FLYING DRAGON TT K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 4 | 8.9 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | SPEED SWORD B1/TT H Bowman · M Newnham | H Bowman | M Newnham | 11 | 41.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | GOODMANSHIP B/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 9 | 70.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 9 | DIAMOND SOARS B/TT A Pouchin · P F Yiu | A Pouchin | P F Yiu | 12 | 6.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | FUNG B/TT Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 3 | 12.0 | 27-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
模型首選 SKY PROPHET（17.5%）跑獲第 3 名；頭馬 EXCELLENT DADDY 模型排名第 6。
離線回測評分：此評分表由只使用本賽季之前數據訓練的模型產生，模型從未見過此賽事的賽果。
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SKY PROPHET | 17.5% | 5.72 | 3 |
| 2 | 10 | CHEER FOR SOUTH | 13.4% | 7.46 | 7 |
| 3 | 8 | FALCON COURT | 13.4% | 7.47 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 | FLYING DRAGON | 10.9% | 9.17 | 8 |
| 5 | 11 | PATCH OF WATCH | 10.5% | 9.52 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | EXCELLENT DADDY | 9.9% | 10.07 | 1 |
| 7 | 6 | FUNG | 6.6% | 15.17 | 12 |
| 8 | 4 | SPEED SWORD | 6.1% | 16.28 | 9 |
| 9 | 9 | DIAMOND SOARS | 4.0% | 25.24 | 11 |
| 10 | 3 | CURRAHEE | 3.1% | 32.12 | 5 |
| 11 | 2 | SMART LEADER | 2.4% | 41.73 | 6 |
| 12 | 12 | GOODMANSHIP | 2.2% | 45.84 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 84
PLACE
1 20
7 22
11 20.5
QUINELLA
7,11 279.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,7 80
1,11 57
7,11 101.5
FORECAST
7,11 696
TIERCE
7,11,1 3,450
TRIO
1,7,11 457
FIRST 4
1,7,8,11 1,101
QUARTET
7,11,1,8 30,111