沙田 · 2025-03-30 · 06:20
第 4場
2025-03-30沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1200米。由L Ferraris策騎、K H Ting訓練的LITTLE PARADISE勝出，贏出HD。BEAUTY MISSILE獲得亞軍；WITH A SMILE獲得季軍。2.6倍大熱門WITH A SMILE跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | LITTLE PARADISE TT1 1.09.23 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 13 | 3.3 | HD |
| 2 | 11 | BEAUTY MISSILE PC A Hamelin · F C Lor | A Hamelin | F C Lor | 2 | 6.7 | HD |
| 3 | 4 | WITH A SMILE TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 4 | 2.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | TOP PEAK TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 55.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | BIENVENUE B K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 5 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | DO YOUR PART TT R Kingscote · K W Lui | R Kingscote | K W Lui | 6 | 30.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | SKY CAP XB/TT B Thompson · C Fownes | B Thompson | C Fownes | 3 | 76.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | WINNING MACHINE TT1 K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 12 | 121.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | TRULY FLUKE XB1 H Bowman · D Eustace | H Bowman | D Eustace | 9 | 58.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 14 | HAPPY FOR ALL B/TT A Badel · J Richards | A Badel | J Richards | 14 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | TACTICAL COMMAND B D McDonogh · M Newnham | D McDonogh | M Newnham | 11 | 48.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 13 | COSMIC SPURS B/TT H Bentley · J Size | H Bentley | J Size | 7 | 136.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 5 | DASH SR1 J Orman · D J Whyte | J Orman | D J Whyte | 10 | 40.0 | 9 |
| 14 | 6 | DASHING PAL H/TT M F Poon · W K Mo | M F Poon | W K Mo | 8 | 14.0 | 10-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | WITH A SMILE | 20.5% | 4.88 | 3 |
| 2 | 11 | BEAUTY MISSILE | 14.1% | 7.08 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | LITTLE PARADISE | 13.9% | 7.17 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | BIENVENUE | 12.9% | 7.77 | 5 |
| 5 | 9 | TRULY FLUKE | 11.4% | 8.76 | 9 |
| 6 | 3 | TACTICAL COMMAND | 6.7% | 14.99 | 11 |
| 7 | 6 | DASHING PAL | 4.5% | 22.23 | 14 |
| 8 | 10 | WINNING MACHINE | 3.8% | 26.64 | 8 |
| 9 | 14 | HAPPY FOR ALL | 3.3% | 30.09 | 10 |
| 10 | 7 | DO YOUR PART | 2.9% | 35.09 | 6 |
| 11 | 5 | DASH | 2.5% | 39.84 | 13 |
| 12 | 1 | TOP PEAK | 2.0% | 50.81 | 4 |
| 13 | 13 | COSMIC SPURS | 1.0% | 104.40 | 12 |
| 14 | 2 | SKY CAP | 0.6% | 166.46 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 33.5
PLACE
4 12
8 15.5
11 20
QUINELLA
8,11 144.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 25
4,11 34
8,11 48.5
FORECAST
8,11 217
TIERCE
8,11,4 689
TRIO
4,8,11 105
FIRST 4
1,4,8,11 830
QUARTET
8,11,4,1 13,059
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
6,10,12/4,8,11 10,446
3RD DOUBLE
10/8 1,062
10/11 279