沙田 · 2025-07-05 · 13:20
第 11場
2025-07-05沙田第11場，Class 3，途程1400米。由Y L Chung策騎、A S Cruz訓練的BEAUTY CRESCENT勝出，贏出3/4。PATCH OF STARS獲得亞軍；THE ABSOLUTE獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。1.7倍大熱門PATCH OF STARS跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | BEAUTY CRESCENT 一路領先 B/TT 1.21.11 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 7 | 8.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | PATCH OF STARS 後段發力 TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 8 | 1.7 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 14 | THE ABSOLUTE 後段發力 B/XB/TT K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 5 | 20.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | SOLID SHALAA B/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | 1 | 24.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 7 | ARMOUR WAR EAGLE 後段發力 CP L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 2 | 8.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | ANOTHER WORLD CP C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 11 | 10.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 8 | ENDEARED 後段發力 XB B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 14 | 22.0 | 7 |
| 8 | 6 | TOP GUN 後段發力 V A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 12 | 96.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 9 | SUPERB BOY 後段發力 B/TT J Orman · K W Lui | J Orman | K W Lui | 9 | 54.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 10 | VICTORY SKY CP K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 13 | 9.2 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 13 | SEA CHARIOT TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 10 | 136.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | VIEW OF THE WORLD TT K De Melo · C H Yip | K De Melo | C H Yip | 4 | 110.0 | 10 |
| 13 | 5 | GREY CHARGER XB1/TT H Bowman · D Eustace | H Bowman | D Eustace | 3 | 97.0 | 12 |
| 14 | 2 | HELENE WARRIOR XB/TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 6 | 102.0 | 12-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PATCH OF STARS | 50.4% | 1.98 | 2 |
| 2 | 10 | VICTORY SKY | 10.5% | 9.50 | 10 |
| 3 | 4 | SOLID SHALAA | 8.0% | 12.44 | 4 |
| 4 | 3 | ANOTHER WORLD | 6.6% | 15.07 | 6 |
| 5 | 12 | BEAUTY CRESCENT | 5.4% | 18.49 | 1 |
| 6 | 7 | ARMOUR WAR EAGLE | 3.9% | 25.82 | 5 |
| 7 | 14 | THE ABSOLUTE | 3.7% | 26.91 | 3 |
| 8 | 6 | TOP GUN | 2.6% | 38.76 | 8 |
| 9 | 8 | ENDEARED | 2.4% | 41.64 | 7 |
| 10 | 2 | HELENE WARRIOR | 1.9% | 53.98 | 14 |
| 11 | 9 | SUPERB BOY | 1.3% | 74.08 | 9 |
| 12 | 13 | SEA CHARIOT | 1.3% | 79.51 | 11 |
| 13 | 11 | VIEW OF THE WORLD | 1.0% | 96.57 | 12 |
| 14 | 5 | GREY CHARGER | 0.9% | 106.94 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 85
PLACE
1 12
12 25.5
14 34
QUINELLA
1,12 82.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,12 39
1,14 50.5
12,14 194.5
FORECAST
12,1 307
TIERCE
12,1,14 2,674
TRIO
1,12,14 423
FIRST 4
1,4,12,14 1,208
QUARTET
12,1,14,4 52,928
全部彩池（另 4 項）
10TH DOUBLE
6/1 11.5
6/12 375.5
2ND TREBLE
6/6/1 22
6/6/12 1,320
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
2,6,9/1,12,14 19,487
SIX UP
4/1/3/6/6/12 214,925
4,12/1,3/3,11/5,6/6,9/1,12 485
1 [Z Purton] —
1 [D A Hayes] —