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Sha Tin · 2025-07-05 · 13:20

Race 11

Class 3 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2025-07-05 was Class 3 over 1400m. BEAUTY CRESCENT, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with PATCH OF STARS second and THE ABSOLUTE third. The winner led throughout. The 1.7 favourite PATCH OF STARS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 BEAUTY CRESCENT Wire to wire B/TT 1.21.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 8.5 3/4
2 1 PATCH OF STARS Closed strongly TT Z Purton · K L Man 8 1.7 3/4
3 14 THE ABSOLUTE Closed strongly B/XB/TT K Teetan · K H Ting 5 20.0 1-3/4
4 4 SOLID SHALAA B/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 1 24.0 2-1/2
5 7 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE Closed strongly CP L Ferraris · M Newnham 2 8.8 3-1/4
6 3 ANOTHER WORLD CP C L Chau · T P Yung 11 10.0 6-1/4
7 8 ENDEARED Closed strongly XB B Avdulla · J Size 14 22.0 7
8 6 TOP GUN Closed strongly V A Atzeni · F C Lor 12 96.0 7
9 9 SUPERB BOY Closed strongly B/TT J Orman · K W Lui 9 54.0 7
10 10 VICTORY SKY CP K C Leung · P F Yiu 13 9.2 7-1/2
11 13 SEA CHARIOT TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 10 136.0 8-3/4
12 11 VIEW OF THE WORLD TT K De Melo · C H Yip 4 110.0 10
13 5 GREY CHARGER XB1/TT H Bowman · D Eustace 3 97.0 12
14 2 HELENE WARRIOR XB/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 6 102.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY CRESCENT2. PATCH OF STARS+0.75L3. THE ABSOLUTE+1.75L4. SOLID SHALAA+2.5L5. ARMOUR WAR EAGLE+3.25L6. ANOTHER WORLD+6.25L7. ENDEARED+7L8. TOP GUN+7L9. SUPERB BOY+7L10. VICTORY SKY+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PATCH OF STARS (50.4%) finished 2nd — the winner BEAUTY CRESCENT was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PATCH OF STARS 50.4% 1.98 2
2 10 VICTORY SKY 10.5% 9.50 10
3 4 SOLID SHALAA 8.0% 12.44 4
4 3 ANOTHER WORLD 6.6% 15.07 6
5 12 BEAUTY CRESCENT 5.4% 18.49 1
6 7 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE 3.9% 25.82 5
7 14 THE ABSOLUTE 3.7% 26.91 3
8 6 TOP GUN 2.6% 38.76 8
9 8 ENDEARED 2.4% 41.64 7
10 2 HELENE WARRIOR 1.9% 53.98 14
11 9 SUPERB BOY 1.3% 74.08 9
12 13 SEA CHARIOT 1.3% 79.51 11
13 11 VIEW OF THE WORLD 1.0% 96.57 12
14 5 GREY CHARGER 0.9% 106.94 13
PATCH OF STARSVICTORY SKYSOLID SHALAAANOTHER WORLDBEAUTY CRESCENT — wonARMOUR WAR EAGLETHE ABSOLUTETOP GUNENDEAREDHELENE WARRIORSUPERB BOYSEA CHARIOTVIEW OF THE WORLDGREY CHARGER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 85

PLACE

1 12

12 25.5

14 34

QUINELLA

1,12 82.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,12 39

1,14 50.5

12,14 194.5

FORECAST

12,1 307

TIERCE

12,1,14 2,674

TRIO

1,12,14 423

FIRST 4

1,4,12,14 1,208

QUARTET

12,1,14,4 52,928

All pools (4 more)

10TH DOUBLE

6/1 11.5

6/12 375.5

2ND TREBLE

6/6/1 22

6/6/12 1,320

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,6,9/1,12,14 19,487

SIX UP

4/1/3/6/6/12 214,925

4,12/1,3/3,11/5,6/6,9/1,12 485

1 [Z Purton]

1 [D A Hayes]