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Sha Tin · 2025-07-05 · 14:40

Race 1

Griffin 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-07-05 was Griffin over 1200m. ALABAMA SONG, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by N, with LIGHT YEARS GLORY second and FIELD MARSHAL third. The 3.1 favourite MOTOR finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 ALABAMA SONG 1.09.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size 2 13.0 N
2 1 LIGHT YEARS GLORY CP/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 9 8.7 N
3 9 FIELD MARSHAL CP A Atzeni · D A Hayes 1 4.8 3/4
4 4 MOTOR CP/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 4 3.1 1-1/2
5 10 JUST FOLLOW ME TT1 A Hamelin · T P Yung 5 32.0 1-3/4
6 12 WINNING CHAMPION TT M F Poon · C S Shum 11 14.0 2-3/4
7 6 YOUNG FIGHTER TT H Bowman · C Fownes 6 21.0 3
8 11 SUPER DRAGON L Ferraris · M Newnham 7 3.3 3-1/4
9 2 KING DANCE XB K De Melo · K W Lui 3 91.0 4-1/4
10 5 SPARKLE AND GOLD TT C L Chau · C H Yip 10 65.0 5-1/4
11 3 MAZING GRACE H1 M L Yeung · C W Chang 12 116.0 15-1/2
12 8 EMERGING STAR H T Mo · C W Chang 8 160.0 15-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALABAMA SONG2. LIGHT YEARS GLORY+0.05L3. FIELD MARSHAL+0.75L4. MOTOR+1.5L5. JUST FOLLOW ME+1.75L6. WINNING CHAMPION+2.75L7. YOUNG FIGHTER+3L8. SUPER DRAGON+3.25L9. KING DANCE+4.25L10. SPARKLE AND GOLD+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick FIELD MARSHAL (22.0%) finished 3rd — the winner ALABAMA SONG was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 FIELD MARSHAL 22.0% 4.55 3
2 1 LIGHT YEARS GLORY 20.2% 4.94 2
3 4 MOTOR 16.3% 6.13 4
4 6 YOUNG FIGHTER 10.8% 9.30 7
5 11 SUPER DRAGON 7.0% 14.22 8
6 7 ALABAMA SONG 5.3% 18.91 1
7 12 WINNING CHAMPION 5.2% 19.41 6
8 10 JUST FOLLOW ME 4.0% 25.21 5
9 5 SPARKLE AND GOLD 3.7% 27.19 10
10 3 MAZING GRACE 3.0% 33.44 11
11 2 KING DANCE 1.8% 54.56 9
12 8 EMERGING STAR 0.8% 127.01 12
FIELD MARSHALLIGHT YEARS GLORYMOTORYOUNG FIGHTERSUPER DRAGONALABAMA SONG — wonWINNING CHAMPIONJUST FOLLOW MESPARKLE AND GOLDMAZING GRACEKING DANCEEMERGING STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 136

PLACE

1 22.5

7 43

9 16

QUINELLA

1,7 785.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 214

1,9 81

7,9 87

FORECAST

7,1 1,779

TIERCE

7,1,9 8,602

TRIO

1,7,9 1,089

FIRST 4

1,4,7,9 447

QUARTET

7,1,9,4 18,666