Sha Tin · 2025-07-05 · 14:40
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2025-07-05 was Griffin over 1200m. ALABAMA SONG, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by N, with LIGHT YEARS GLORY second and FIELD MARSHAL third. The 3.1 favourite MOTOR finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | ALABAMA SONG 1.09.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 2 | 13.0 | N |
| 2 | 1 | LIGHT YEARS GLORY CP/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 9 | 8.7 | N |
| 3 | 9 | FIELD MARSHAL CP A Atzeni · D A Hayes | A Atzeni | D A Hayes | 1 | 4.8 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | MOTOR CP/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 4 | 3.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | JUST FOLLOW ME TT1 A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 5 | 32.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | WINNING CHAMPION TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 11 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | YOUNG FIGHTER TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 6 | 21.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 11 | SUPER DRAGON L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 7 | 3.3 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | KING DANCE XB K De Melo · K W Lui | K De Melo | K W Lui | 3 | 91.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | SPARKLE AND GOLD TT C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 10 | 65.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | MAZING GRACE H1 M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 12 | 116.0 | 15-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | EMERGING STAR H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 8 | 160.0 | 15-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | FIELD MARSHAL | 22.0% | 4.55 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | LIGHT YEARS GLORY | 20.2% | 4.94 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | MOTOR | 16.3% | 6.13 | 4 |
| 4 | 6 | YOUNG FIGHTER | 10.8% | 9.30 | 7 |
| 5 | 11 | SUPER DRAGON | 7.0% | 14.22 | 8 |
| 6 | 7 | ALABAMA SONG | 5.3% | 18.91 | 1 |
| 7 | 12 | WINNING CHAMPION | 5.2% | 19.41 | 6 |
| 8 | 10 | JUST FOLLOW ME | 4.0% | 25.21 | 5 |
| 9 | 5 | SPARKLE AND GOLD | 3.7% | 27.19 | 10 |
| 10 | 3 | MAZING GRACE | 3.0% | 33.44 | 11 |
| 11 | 2 | KING DANCE | 1.8% | 54.56 | 9 |
| 12 | 8 | EMERGING STAR | 0.8% | 127.01 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 136
PLACE
1 22.5
7 43
9 16
QUINELLA
1,7 785.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,7 214
1,9 81
7,9 87
FORECAST
7,1 1,779
TIERCE
7,1,9 8,602
TRIO
1,7,9 1,089
FIRST 4
1,4,7,9 447
QUARTET
7,1,9,4 18,666