沙田 · 2025-11-30 · 07:15
第 5場
2025-11-30沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1600米。由H Bowman策騎、C Fownes訓練的AUDACIOUS PURSUIT勝出。SMART FAT CAT獲得亞軍；AMAZING DUCK獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.1倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | AUDACIOUS PURSUIT 後段發力 1:35.08 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 3 | 2.1 | — |
| 2 | 9 | SMART FAT CAT 後段發力 Z Purton · W K Mo | Z Purton | W K Mo | 2 | 6.1 | SH |
| 3 | 13 | AMAZING DUCK 早段領放 R Kingscote · K H Ting | R Kingscote | K H Ting | 1 | 27.0 | N |
| 4 | 2 | THE LION KING J Orman · F C Lor | J Orman | F C Lor | 9 | 206.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | THE GOLDEN KNIGHT 後段發力 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 6.9 | 2 |
| 6 | 4 | BRIGHT INHERITANCE 後段發力 M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 8 | 25.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | BEAUTY VIVA 後段發力 H Doyle · A S Cruz | H Doyle | A S Cruz | 11 | 18.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | GLORIASTAR L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 12 | 14.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 14 | SILVER UP 後段發力 K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 10 | 25.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | TIME TO FIRE 後段發力 M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 14 | 43.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 11 | CONSPIRACY WITNESS A Atzeni · D A Hayes | A Atzeni | D A Hayes | 7 | 36.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY B Avdulla · C S Shum | B Avdulla | C S Shum | 6 | 80.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 7 | PEARL OF PANG'S M Guyon · K L Man | M Guyon | K L Man | 13 | 13.0 | 7 |
| 14 | 1 | OLDTOWN J McDonald · W Y So | J McDonald | W Y So | 4 | 15.0 | 12-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | AUDACIOUS PURSUIT | 24.8% | 4.04 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | OLDTOWN | 14.3% | 7.00 | 14 |
| 3 | 9 | SMART FAT CAT | 13.6% | 7.38 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | THE GOLDEN KNIGHT | 13.3% | 7.53 | 5 |
| 5 | 7 | PEARL OF PANG'S | 5.3% | 18.70 | 13 |
| 6 | 6 | GLORIASTAR | 5.1% | 19.66 | 8 |
| 7 | 11 | CONSPIRACY WITNESS | 4.8% | 20.94 | 11 |
| 8 | 4 | BRIGHT INHERITANCE | 4.4% | 22.83 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | BEAUTY VIVA | 4.0% | 25.18 | 7 |
| 10 | 14 | SILVER UP | 3.2% | 30.94 | 9 |
| 11 | 10 | TIME TO FIRE | 2.2% | 44.47 | 10 |
| 12 | 12 | JOYFUL PROSPERITY | 2.2% | 45.68 | 12 |
| 13 | 13 | AMAZING DUCK | 1.7% | 57.27 | 3 |
| 14 | 2 | THE LION KING | 1.1% | 89.62 | 4 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 21.5
PLACE
5 11.5
9 21.5
13 69.5
QUINELLA
5,9 58
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 29.5
5,13 106.5
9,13 260
FORECAST
5,9 128
TIERCE
5,9,13 2,479
TRIO
5,9,13 693
FIRST 4
2,5,9,13 24,496
QUARTET
5,9,13,2 168,900
全部彩池（另 2 項）
1ST TREBLE
4/7/5 1,565
4/7/9 582
4TH DOUBLE
7/5 152
7/9 68.5