跑馬地 · 2026-03-18 · 13:10
DAHLIA HANDICAP
第 6場
2026-03-18跑馬地第6場「DAHLIA HANDICAP」，Class 4，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、M Newnham訓練的ACE WAR勝出。KINGLY DEMEANOR獲得亞軍；SMART CITY獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以1.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
場地詳情及賽日變動（1）
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ACE WAR 後段發力 XB 1:48.66 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · M Newnham | Z Purton | M Newnham | 3 | 1.7 | — |
| 2 | 12 | KINGLY DEMEANOR 早段領放 TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 10 | 15.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | SMART CITY CP/XB K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 11 | 16.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | RELIABLE DAD 後段發力 XB J Orman · D J Hall | J Orman | D J Hall | 6 | 9.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | CAN'T GO WONG 後段發力 B/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 1 | 27.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 10 | GOOD LUCK WIN B/TT M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 12 | 30.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | FOREVER GLORIOUS V/XB A Atzeni · B Crawford | A Atzeni | B Crawford | 2 | 38.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | AMAZING GAZE 後段發力 CP L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 8 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | NOBLE PURSUIT 後段發力 TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 9 | 24.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | OCEAN IMPACT B C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 4 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | CHARITY GAIN B-/TT H Bowman · D Eustace | H Bowman | D Eustace | 5 | 15.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | SHARPEN BRIGHT B Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 7 | 55.0 | 12-3/4 |
| — | 0 | HARMONY GALAXY TT · C S Shum | — | C S Shum | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | KING OF SELECTION B/TT · W K Mo | — | W K Mo | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ACE WAR | 33.5% | 2.99 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | RELIABLE DAD | 9.2% | 10.88 | 4 |
| 3 | 5 | OCEAN IMPACT | 8.8% | 11.39 | 10 |
| 4 | 4 | AMAZING GAZE | 8.6% | 11.57 | 8 |
| 5 | 12 | KINGLY DEMEANOR | 7.4% | 13.55 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | CHARITY GAIN | 7.0% | 14.35 | 11 |
| 7 | 8 | CAN'T GO WONG | 6.6% | 15.22 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | GOOD LUCK WIN | 5.0% | 20.14 | 6 |
| 9 | 2 | NOBLE PURSUIT | 3.9% | 25.39 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | SMART CITY | 3.8% | 26.50 | 3 |
| 11 | 9 | FOREVER GLORIOUS | 3.4% | 29.49 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | SHARPEN BRIGHT | 2.9% | 34.36 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 17.5
PLACE
3 12
11 36
12 48.5
QUINELLA
3,12 147.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,11 51.5
3,12 59
11,12 276.5
FORECAST
3,12 215
TIERCE
3,12,11 1,718
TRIO
3,11,12 683
FIRST 4
3,6,11,12 820
QUARTET
3,12,11,6 12,896
全部彩池（另 1 項）
5TH DOUBLE
6/3 144
6/12 182