Happy Valley · 2026-03-18 · 21:10
DAHLIA HANDICAP
Race 6
Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ACE WAR Closed strongly XB 1:48.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · M Newnham | Z Purton | M Newnham | 3 | 1.7 | — |
| 2 | 12 | KINGLY DEMEANOR Led early TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 10 | 15.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | SMART CITY CP/XB K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 11 | 16.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | RELIABLE DAD Closed strongly XB J Orman · D J Hall | J Orman | D J Hall | 6 | 9.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 1 | 27.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 10 | GOOD LUCK WIN B/TT M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 12 | 30.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | FOREVER GLORIOUS V/XB A Atzeni · B Crawford | A Atzeni | B Crawford | 2 | 38.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | AMAZING GAZE Closed strongly CP L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 8 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | NOBLE PURSUIT Closed strongly TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 9 | 24.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | OCEAN IMPACT B C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 4 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | CHARITY GAIN B-/TT H Bowman · D Eustace | H Bowman | D Eustace | 5 | 15.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | SHARPEN BRIGHT B Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 7 | 55.0 | 12-3/4 |
| — | 0 | HARMONY GALAXY TT · C S Shum | — | C S Shum | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | KING OF SELECTION B/TT · W K Mo | — | W K Mo | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 6 ("DAHLIA HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-03-18 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ACE WAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by M Newnham, won, with KINGLY DEMEANOR second and SMART CITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ACE WAR | 33.5% | 2.99 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | RELIABLE DAD | 9.2% | 10.88 | 4 |
| 3 | 5 | OCEAN IMPACT | 8.8% | 11.39 | 10 |
| 4 | 4 | AMAZING GAZE | 8.6% | 11.57 | 8 |
| 5 | 12 | KINGLY DEMEANOR | 7.4% | 13.55 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | CHARITY GAIN | 7.0% | 14.35 | 11 |
| 7 | 8 | CAN'T GO WONG | 6.6% | 15.22 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | GOOD LUCK WIN | 5.0% | 20.14 | 6 |
| 9 | 2 | NOBLE PURSUIT | 3.9% | 25.39 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | SMART CITY | 3.8% | 26.50 | 3 |
| 11 | 9 | FOREVER GLORIOUS | 3.4% | 29.49 | 7 |
| 12 | 7 | SHARPEN BRIGHT | 2.9% | 34.36 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 17.5
PLACE
3 12
11 36
12 48.5
QUINELLA
3,12 147.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,11 51.5
3,12 59
11,12 276.5
FORECAST
3,12 215
TIERCE
3,12,11 1,718
TRIO
3,11,12 683
FIRST 4
3,6,11,12 820
QUARTET
3,12,11,6 12,896
All pools (1 more)
5TH DOUBLE
6/3 144
6/12 182