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Happy Valley · 2026-03-18 · 10:40

ASTER HANDICAP

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 1 ("ASTER HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-03-18 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GLORIOUS RYDER, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D Eustace, won, with SOARING BRONCO second and DRAGON SUNRISE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite DRAGON SUNRISE finished 3rd.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.71

Result

Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 GLORIOUS RYDER Closed strongly B/TT ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D Eustace 6 36.0
1 7 SOARING BRONCO Closed strongly H-/P-/TT- ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Orman · M Newnham 2 4.4
3 10 DRAGON SUNRISE Closed strongly P-/XB/B1 Z Purton · K W Lui 12 3.5 N
4 12 PERFECTO MOMENTS Closed strongly CP M L Yeung · K H Ting 10 31.0 1/2
5 3 TELECOM POWER B Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 9 12.0 1-1/2
6 11 HARRY'S HERO Closed strongly H A Badel · P F Yiu 11 10.0 3-3/4
7 6 CARRYON SMILING Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · W Y So 4 26.0 3-3/4
8 9 SMART TRIO B/TT R Kingscote · C W Chang 1 75.0 5-1/2
9 8 WAH MAY WAI WAI B Avdulla · A S Cruz 7 8.1 7
10 5 TOP TO SKY XB-/TT C L Chau · C H Yip 5 51.0 8-1/2
11 2 LUCKY BLESSING Led early CP/TT M F Poon · W K Mo 8 20.0 13-1/4
0 GOLD TACK CP- · D J Hall
0 ISLAND GOLDEN B/TT · K L Man
4 STERLING WONGCHOY B D B McMonagle · D J Whyte 3 4.5

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLORIOUS RYDER1. SOARING BRONCO3. DRAGON SUNRISE+0.05L4. PERFECTO MOMENTS+0.5L5. TELECOM POWER+1.5L6. HARRY'S HERO+3.75L7. CARRYON SMILING+3.75L8. SMART TRIO+5.5L9. WAH MAY WAI WAI+7L10. TOP TO SKY+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick DRAGON SUNRISE (19.1%) finished 3rd — the winner SOARING BRONCO was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 DRAGON SUNRISE 19.1% 5.25 3
2 8 WAH MAY WAI WAI 14.0% 7.17 9
3 12 PERFECTO MOMENTS 12.5% 8.03 4
4 7 SOARING BRONCO 11.3% 8.83 1
5 11 HARRY'S HERO 11.1% 9.05 6
6 3 TELECOM POWER 8.7% 11.44 5
7 6 CARRYON SMILING 7.5% 13.38 7
8 5 TOP TO SKY 6.2% 16.20 10
9 2 LUCKY BLESSING 3.7% 26.89 11
10 1 GLORIOUS RYDER 3.6% 27.60 1
11 9 SMART TRIO 2.4% 41.19 8
DRAGON SUNRISEWAH MAY WAI WAIPERFECTO MOMENTSSOARING BRONCO — wonHARRY'S HEROTELECOM POWERCARRYON SMILINGTOP TO SKYLUCKY BLESSINGGLORIOUS RYDER — wonSMART TRIO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 180

7 22

PLACE

1 106.5

7 17

10 15.5

QUINELLA

1,7 1,645.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 490.5

1,10 491

7,10 30.5

FORECAST

1,7 1,478

7,1 1,265

TIERCE

1,7,10 11,440

7,1,10 7,771

TRIO

1,7,10 2,188

FIRST 4

1,7,10,12 8,408

QUARTET

1,7,10,12 126,416

7,1,10,12 88,727