Happy Valley · 2026-03-18 · 11:40
BELLFLOWER HANDICAP
Race 3
Race 3 ("BELLFLOWER HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-03-18 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. NOTTHESILLYONE, ridden by R Kingscote and trained by M Newnham, won, with BEAUTY THUNDER second and HAPPY UNITED third. The 3.9 favourite BEAUTY THUNDER finished 2nd.
Track detail & race-day changes (1)
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | NOTTHESILLYONE TT 0:56.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Kingscote · M Newnham | R Kingscote | M Newnham | 12 | 26.0 | — |
| 2 | 3 | BEAUTY THUNDER CP/TT Z Purton · W K Mo | Z Purton | W K Mo | 9 | 3.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | HAPPY UNITED P2/TT M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 8 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | GOLDEN FRIENDSHIP B/TT H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 1 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | HEROIC MASTER B/TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 3 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 12 | SAVVY TWINKLE XB/TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 2 | 6.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | HARMONY FIRE B/TT H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 11 | 23.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | HONEST WITNESS B/TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes | L Ferraris | D A Hayes | 5 | 8.6 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | WATCH THIS ONE V/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 4 | 8.4 | 4 |
| 10 | 2 | CAPTAIN LINK B2/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 7 | 66.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | PARENTS' LOVE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 6 | 4.7 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | SIR CHARGE H-/B1/TT- B Avdulla · D Eustace | B Avdulla | D Eustace | 10 | 67.0 | 11 |
| — | 0 | PACKING PHOENIX TT L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | — | — | — |
| — | 0 | KWAI CHUNG TALENTS · C W Chang | — | C W Chang | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BEAUTY THUNDER | 32.0% | 3.12 | 2 |
| 2 | 12 | SAVVY TWINKLE | 10.5% | 9.52 | 6 |
| 3 | 8 | WATCH THIS ONE | 9.4% | 10.66 | 9 |
| 4 | 1 | PARENTS' LOVE | 9.2% | 10.91 | 11 |
| 5 | 7 | HONEST WITNESS | 8.9% | 11.18 | 8 |
| 6 | 10 | HEROIC MASTER | 7.6% | 13.18 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | GOLDEN FRIENDSHIP | 6.1% | 16.51 | 4 |
| 8 | 4 | HARMONY FIRE | 4.6% | 21.96 | 7 |
| 9 | 11 | HAPPY UNITED | 4.1% | 24.22 | 3 |
| 10 | 6 | SIR CHARGE | 3.2% | 31.37 | 12 |
| 11 | 5 | NOTTHESILLYONE | 3.0% | 33.08 | 1 |
| 12 | 2 | CAPTAIN LINK | 1.4% | 69.67 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 262.5
PLACE
3 15.5
5 75.5
11 42.5
QUINELLA
3,5 689
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 225
3,11 135.5
5,11 727.5
FORECAST
5,3 1,574
TIERCE
5,3,11 24,554
TRIO
3,5,11 3,447
FIRST 4
3,5,9,11 5,839
QUARTET
5,3,11,9 175,967
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,9/3,5,11 287,208
2ND DOUBLE
2/3 55.5
2/5 1,169