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Happy Valley · 2026-03-18 · 11:10

AZALEA HANDICAP

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 2 ("AZALEA HANDICAP") at Happy Valley on 2026-03-18 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ARMOR GOLDEN EAGLE, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by M Newnham, won, with FANTASTIC FUN second and THE LION KING third. The winner led throughout. The 3.2 favourite MIGHTY STEED finished 5th.

Track detail
Penetrometer 2.71

Result

Official · 1:38.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 ARMOR GOLDEN EAGLE Wire to wire B 1:38.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · M Newnham 6 4.7
2 4 FANTASTIC FUN Closed strongly XB/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 4 6.1 N
3 9 THE LION KING Closed strongly D B McMonagle · F C Lor 5 7.0 2-1/2
4 6 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly L Hewitson · P C Ng 1 10.0 2-3/4
5 1 MIGHTY STEED CP Z Purton · K W Lui 7 3.2 4-1/4
6 5 VERMILION TEMPEST Closed strongly H-/P-/TT B Avdulla · C Fownes 12 16.0
6 8 SHOOTING TO TOP Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · W K Mo 8 16.0
8 7 INNO SUPER Closed strongly SR/TT C L Chau · D Eustace 9 9.1 8-1/4
9 12 LUCKY FIELD B/TT Y L Chung · K L Man 3 117.0 9
10 3 COLOURFUL GAN Closed strongly B-/SR1/CP2 J Orman · D J Whyte 11 93.0 10
11 11 LESLIE B K Teetan · C W Chang 10 25.0 18-1/4
12 10 REGROWTH WINNER CP/TT M L Yeung · J Richards 2 137.0 41-1/2
0 PRECISION HOPE · D A Hayes
0 SURE JOYFUL TT · P F Yiu

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ARMOR GOLDEN EAGLE2. FANTASTIC FUN+0.05L3. THE LION KING+2.5L4. AESTHETICISM+2.75L5. MIGHTY STEED+4.25L8. INNO SUPER+8.25L9. LUCKY FIELD+9L10. COLOURFUL GAN+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2025-26
The model's top pick FANTASTIC FUN (20.8%) finished 2nd — the winner ARMOR GOLDEN EAGLE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 FANTASTIC FUN 20.8% 4.81 2
2 1 MIGHTY STEED 19.7% 5.08 5
3 7 INNO SUPER 16.3% 6.14 8
4 2 ARMOR GOLDEN EAGLE 12.8% 7.83 1
5 9 THE LION KING 8.6% 11.63 3
6 6 AESTHETICISM 6.4% 15.72 4
7 8 SHOOTING TO TOP 4.1% 24.39 6
8 5 VERMILION TEMPEST 4.1% 24.53 6
9 11 LESLIE 3.4% 29.27 11
10 3 COLOURFUL GAN 1.6% 63.32 10
11 12 LUCKY FIELD 1.3% 76.79 9
12 10 REGROWTH WINNER 1.0% 99.09 12
FANTASTIC FUNMIGHTY STEEDINNO SUPERARMOR GOLDEN EAGLE — wonTHE LION KINGAESTHETICISMSHOOTING TO TOPVERMILION TEMPESTLESLIECOLOURFUL GANLUCKY FIELDREGROWTH WINNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 47.5

PLACE

2 19

4 18

9 25.5

QUINELLA

2,4 178

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 63.5

2,9 68.5

4,9 86.5

FORECAST

2,4 376

TIERCE

2,4,9 2,327

TRIO

2,4,9 423

FIRST 4

2,4,6,9 591

QUARTET

2,4,9,6 11,724

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/2 912

1/4 141.5

7/2 130.5

7/4 21.5