Happy Valley · 2019-10-09
Race 2
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FLAME LILY Closed strongly TT 1.39.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 4 | 2.7 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 0 | SPEEDY WALLY Closed strongly TT A Domeyer · C Fownes | A Domeyer | C Fownes | 1 | 5.9 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 0 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS Closed strongly H-/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 3 | 4.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly H/XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 6.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | STARLIT KNIGHT Closed strongly H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 10 | 17.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | WINNING CONTROLLER B M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 8 | 41.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | GOD OF DRAGON H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 9 | 9.1 | 11 |
| 8 | 0 | SOLAR BILLION B/TT T H So · K L Man | T H So | K L Man | 2 | 68.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | STRATHBARRA Closed strongly B L Hewitson · A T Millard | L Hewitson | A T Millard | 11 | 239.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | GOLDEN TURBO B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 181.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | NITRO EXPRESS B1/TT N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 7 | 12.0 | 23-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | FLYING TIGER HERO Led early XB R Bayliss · D J Whyte | R Bayliss | D J Whyte | 12 | 145.0 | 39-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-09 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FLAME LILY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with SPEEDY WALLY second and ZHAN JIANG ROCKS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FLAME LILY | 30.4% | 3.28 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | SPEEDY WALLY | 15.4% | 6.51 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | ZHAN JIANG ROCKS | 12.3% | 8.13 | 3 |
| 4 | 0 | DIONYSUS COLLIN | 10.8% | 9.30 | 4 |
| 5 | 0 | GOD OF DRAGON | 9.9% | 10.06 | 7 |
| 6 | 0 | NITRO EXPRESS | 5.9% | 17.08 | 11 |
| 7 | 0 | SOLAR BILLION | 5.3% | 18.95 | 8 |
| 8 | 0 | STARLIT KNIGHT | 4.1% | 24.65 | 5 |
| 9 | 0 | WINNING CONTROLLER | 2.7% | 37.12 | 6 |
| 10 | 0 | STRATHBARRA | 1.6% | 61.51 | 9 |
| 11 | 0 | GOLDEN TURBO | 0.9% | 113.45 | 10 |
| 12 | 0 | FLYING TIGER HERO | 0.8% | 120.79 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 27.5
PLACE
3 17.5
8 13.5
9 16
QUINELLA
8,9 78.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 31
3,9 47.5
8,9 29
TIERCE
8,9,3 454
TRIO
3,8,9 84
FIRST 4
3,8,9,11 112
QUARTET
8,9,3,11 1,778
1ST DOUBLE
6/8 156.5
6/9 46.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 17