Happy Valley · 2019-10-09
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-09 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. BALLISTIC KING, ridden by A Domeyer and trained by K H Ting, won by 3/4, with NORDIC WARRIOR second and YOO YOO KING third. The 2.8 favourite NORDIC WARRIOR finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | BALLISTIC KING 1.10.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Domeyer · K H Ting | A Domeyer | K H Ting | 9 | 4.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 10 | NORDIC WARRIOR B Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 10 | 2.8 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | YOO YOO KING K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 8 | 52.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | FARSHAD B H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 11 | 76.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 12 | MR PICASSO B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 16.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | MONEY BACK B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 8.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | MEGA RED B M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 6 | 76.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 2 | REALISM L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 1 | 45.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 | FIRST RESPONDER TT N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 7 | 5.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 6 | SHANGHAI MASTER C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 13.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | GRATWICK TT M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 2 | 9.7 | 6-3/4 |
| — | 3 | BLITZING J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | BALLISTIC KING | 27.1% | 3.69 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | NORDIC WARRIOR | 21.1% | 4.73 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | FIRST RESPONDER | 14.7% | 6.80 | 9 |
| 4 | 8 | GRATWICK | 11.2% | 8.97 | 11 |
| 5 | 6 | SHANGHAI MASTER | 6.1% | 16.35 | 10 |
| 6 | 12 | MR PICASSO | 5.5% | 18.04 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | FARSHAD | 3.9% | 25.65 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | MONEY BACK | 3.4% | 29.72 | 6 |
| 9 | 1 | YOO YOO KING | 2.8% | 35.43 | 3 |
| 10 | 2 | REALISM | 2.6% | 38.69 | 8 |
| 11 | 9 | MEGA RED | 1.6% | 62.41 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 40.5
PLACE
1 110
7 15.5
10 14
QUINELLA
7,10 58.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,7 228.5
1,10 214.5
7,10 28
TIERCE
7,10,1 2,977
TRIO
1,7,10 653
FIRST 4
1,7,10,11 5,170
QUARTET
7,10,1,11 48,953
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,7,8/1>3,7,10 346,079
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 18.5
7TH DOUBLE
8/3,10 273.5
8/7 1,651.5