Happy Valley · 2019-10-09
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | AURORA PEGASUS TT 1.09.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 3 | 1.8 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | THE ABRAXAS H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 2 | 6.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | TOP SCORE B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 6.6 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | HERO TIME B/H/XB/TT N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 9 | 8.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | ZERO HEDGE P/XB J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 5 | 8.4 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | JIMSON THE DRAGON TT M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 1 | 13.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | SUPREME PATROL B U Rispoli · D E Ferraris | U Rispoli | D E Ferraris | 11 | 67.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | DIVINE POWER B H T Mo · P F Yiu | H T Mo | P F Yiu | 10 | 98.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 0 | FLYING EMPEROR B1 K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 4 | 145.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | GREEN GENERATION B1 T H So · D J Hall | T H So | D J Hall | 7 | 130.0 | 16-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | HAPPY FOREST TT C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 6 | 127.0 | 26-3/4 |
| — | 0 | BOND ELEGANCE K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. AURORA PEGASUS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with THE ABRAXAS second and TOP SCORE third. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | AURORA PEGASUS | 30.4% | 3.29 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | ZERO HEDGE | 24.3% | 4.11 | 5 |
| 3 | 0 | THE ABRAXAS | 14.3% | 7.01 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | HERO TIME | 9.2% | 10.86 | 4 |
| 5 | 0 | TOP SCORE | 8.1% | 12.34 | 3 |
| 6 | 0 | HAPPY FOREST | 4.6% | 21.91 | 11 |
| 7 | 0 | JIMSON THE DRAGON | 3.3% | 30.65 | 6 |
| 8 | 0 | FLYING EMPEROR | 1.9% | 52.70 | 9 |
| 9 | 0 | GREEN GENERATION | 1.7% | 58.27 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | DIVINE POWER | 1.3% | 78.88 | 8 |
| 11 | 0 | SUPREME PATROL | 1.0% | 101.61 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 18.5
PLACE
5 17.5
8 11.5
9 20
QUINELLA
8,9 60
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 25.5
5,9 66
8,9 28
TIERCE
8,9,5 375
TRIO
5,8,9 118
FIRST 4
1,5,8,9 102
QUARTET
8,9,5,1 1,124
3 PICK 1
A1 15.5
A2 —
A3 —
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
3/8,10 84
3/9 101.5