Sha Tin · 2019-10-12
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | JOY MASTER Closed strongly TT 1.34.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 6 | 6.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 0 | LE PANACHE Closed strongly B G van Niekerk · D J Whyte | G van Niekerk | D J Whyte | 11 | 5.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 0 | SAVVY SEVEN Closed strongly B/TT K H Chan · J Moore | K H Chan | J Moore | 2 | 2.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | LIVERBIRD STAR Led early K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 17.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | GOLD VELVET B A Domeyer · A T Millard | A Domeyer | A T Millard | 7 | 6.1 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | BLAZING PARTNERS L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 4 | 14.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | REEVE'S MUNTJAC B1/TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 3 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | LUCKY STORM Closed strongly CP-/XB-/TT- M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 10 | 22.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 0 | FRIENDS OF NANJING CP2/TT C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 5 | 14.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | MONEY WINNER Closed strongly V H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 1 | 44.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | FORTUNE WAY TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 8 | 160.0 | 22-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-12 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. JOY MASTER, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with LE PANACHE second and SAVVY SEVEN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite SAVVY SEVEN finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | JOY MASTER | 30.0% | 3.33 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | SAVVY SEVEN | 13.9% | 7.21 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | LIVERBIRD STAR | 11.4% | 8.76 | 4 |
| 4 | 0 | GOLD VELVET | 8.8% | 11.39 | 5 |
| 5 | 0 | FRIENDS OF NANJING | 6.9% | 14.48 | 9 |
| 6 | 0 | LE PANACHE | 6.2% | 16.04 | 2 |
| 7 | 0 | REEVE'S MUNTJAC | 6.0% | 16.69 | 7 |
| 8 | 0 | MONEY WINNER | 5.6% | 17.95 | 10 |
| 9 | 0 | BLAZING PARTNERS | 5.3% | 18.78 | 6 |
| 10 | 0 | LUCKY STORM | 4.0% | 24.91 | 8 |
| 11 | 0 | FORTUNE WAY | 1.8% | 54.16 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 68.5
PLACE
3 13.5
4 19.5
5 20.5
QUINELLA
4,5 226.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 35.5
3,5 39.5
4,5 72.5
TIERCE
5,4,3 1,062
TRIO
3,4,5 138
FIRST 4
3,4,5,6 409
QUARTET
5,4,3,6 11,252
3 PICK 1
A1 19
A2 —
A3 —