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Sha Tin · 2019-10-12

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 RELENTLESS ME Closed strongly B/XB 1.21.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · D J Whyte 4 2.4 SH
2 0 GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly B- U Rispoli · C W Chang 3 17.0 SH
3 0 ABOVE Closed strongly B K Teetan · J Moore 8 9.1 3
4 0 MR MAGELLAN Closed strongly G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui 7 5.7 3-1/4
5 0 SUNSHINE UNIVERSE Closed strongly B K C Leung · R Gibson 5 13.0 3-1/2
6 0 DYNASTA Closed strongly B1 B Shinn · J Size 2 124.0 3-3/4
7 0 BREAK RECORD Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 12 172.0 4
8 0 FAIRY FLOSS H M F Poon · K H Ting 1 71.0 4
9 0 KHAKI Closed strongly B L Hewitson · A T Millard 10 24.0 5-1/4
10 0 SIMPLE ELEGANT Led early V K H Chan · P F Yiu 11 4.2 5-1/4
11 0 GINTOKI B M L Yeung · T P Yung 9 44.0 6
12 0 HINYUEN SWIFTNESS B/TT H N Wong · C H Yip 6 37.0 10-3/4
13 0 CARE FREE PRINCE B C Y Ho · K L Man 14 49.0 21
14 0 GREAT SMART B H W Lai · L Ho 13 406.0 30-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-12 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RELENTLESS ME, ridden by J Moreira and trained by D J Whyte, won by SH, with GOLDEN FOUR second and ABOVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RELENTLESS ME—2. GOLDEN FOUR+0.1L3. ABOVE+3L4. MR MAGELLAN+3.25L5. SUNSHINE UNIVERSE+3.5L6. DYNASTA+3.75L7. BREAK RECORD+4L8. FAIRY FLOSS+4L9. KHAKI+5.25L10. SIMPLE ELEGANT+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick ABOVE (24.9%) finished 3rd — the winner RELENTLESS ME was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ABOVE 24.9% 4.02 3
2 0 RELENTLESS ME 22.2% 4.51 1
3 0 SIMPLE ELEGANT 16.0% 6.24 10
4 0 MR MAGELLAN 8.4% 11.92 4
5 0 GOLDEN FOUR 4.7% 21.38 2
6 0 DYNASTA 4.4% 22.83 6
7 0 KHAKI 3.8% 26.07 9
8 0 CARE FREE PRINCE 3.7% 27.38 13
9 0 GINTOKI 3.3% 30.15 11
10 0 SUNSHINE UNIVERSE 3.2% 31.44 5
11 0 HINYUEN SWIFTNESS 2.8% 35.79 12
12 0 FAIRY FLOSS 1.2% 83.55 8
13 0 BREAK RECORD 1.0% 96.02 7
14 0 GREAT SMART 0.5% 203.70 14
ABOVERELENTLESS ME — wonSIMPLE ELEGANTMR MAGELLANGOLDEN FOURDYNASTAKHAKICARE FREE PRINCEGINTOKISUNSHINE UNIVERSEHINYUEN SWIFTNESSFAIRY FLOSSBREAK RECORDGREAT SMART

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 24

PLACE

9 12

11 40.5

13 27

QUINELLA

9,11 205.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,11 73

9,13 48

11,13 222

TIERCE

9,11,13 2,248

TRIO

9,11,13 525

FIRST 4

9,11,13,14 451

QUARTET

9,11,13,14 7,860

3 PICK 1

A1 17

A3 —

A2 —

All pools (1 more)

4TH DOUBLE

7/9 601

7/11 332