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Sha Tin · 2019-10-12

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-12 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RELENTLESS ME, ridden by J Moreira and trained by D J Whyte, won by SH, with GOLDEN FOUR second and ABOVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 RELENTLESS ME Closed strongly B/XB 1.21.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · D J Whyte 4 2.4 SH
2 11 GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly B- U Rispoli · C W Chang 3 17.0 SH
3 13 ABOVE Closed strongly B K Teetan · J Moore 8 9.1 3
4 14 MR MAGELLAN Closed strongly G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui 7 5.7 3-1/4
5 4 SUNSHINE UNIVERSE Closed strongly B K C Leung · R Gibson 5 13.0 3-1/2
6 8 DYNASTA Closed strongly B1 B Shinn · J Size 2 124.0 3-3/4
7 10 BREAK RECORD Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 12 172.0 4
8 12 FAIRY FLOSS H M F Poon · K H Ting 1 71.0 4
9 3 KHAKI Closed strongly B L Hewitson · A T Millard 10 24.0 5-1/4
10 1 SIMPLE ELEGANT Led early V K H Chan · P F Yiu 11 4.2 5-1/4
11 6 GINTOKI B M L Yeung · T P Yung 9 44.0 6
12 7 HINYUEN SWIFTNESS B/TT H N Wong · C H Yip 6 37.0 10-3/4
13 5 CARE FREE PRINCE B C Y Ho · K L Man 14 49.0 21
14 2 GREAT SMART B H W Lai · L Ho 13 406.0 30-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RELENTLESS ME2. GOLDEN FOUR+0.1L3. ABOVE+3L4. MR MAGELLAN+3.25L5. SUNSHINE UNIVERSE+3.5L6. DYNASTA+3.75L7. BREAK RECORD+4L8. FAIRY FLOSS+4L9. KHAKI+5.25L10. SIMPLE ELEGANT+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick ABOVE (24.9%) finished 3rd — the winner RELENTLESS ME was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 ABOVE 24.9% 4.02 3
2 9 RELENTLESS ME 22.2% 4.51 1
3 1 SIMPLE ELEGANT 16.0% 6.24 10
4 14 MR MAGELLAN 8.4% 11.92 4
5 11 GOLDEN FOUR 4.7% 21.38 2
6 8 DYNASTA 4.4% 22.83 6
7 3 KHAKI 3.8% 26.07 9
8 5 CARE FREE PRINCE 3.7% 27.38 13
9 6 GINTOKI 3.3% 30.15 11
10 4 SUNSHINE UNIVERSE 3.2% 31.44 5
11 7 HINYUEN SWIFTNESS 2.8% 35.79 12
12 12 FAIRY FLOSS 1.2% 83.55 8
13 10 BREAK RECORD 1.0% 96.02 7
14 2 GREAT SMART 0.5% 203.70 14
ABOVERELENTLESS ME — wonSIMPLE ELEGANTMR MAGELLANGOLDEN FOURDYNASTAKHAKICARE FREE PRINCEGINTOKISUNSHINE UNIVERSEHINYUEN SWIFTNESSFAIRY FLOSSBREAK RECORDGREAT SMART

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 24

PLACE

9 12

11 40.5

13 27

QUINELLA

9,11 205.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,11 73

9,13 48

11,13 222

TIERCE

9,11,13 2,248

TRIO

9,11,13 525

FIRST 4

9,11,13,14 451

QUARTET

9,11,13,14 7,860

3 PICK 1

A1 17

A3

A2

All pools (1 more)

4TH DOUBLE

7/9 601

7/11 332