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Sha Tin · 2019-10-12

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course C 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-12 was Class 2 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. AETHERO, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Moore, won by 2-1/2, with BIG TIME BABY second and THANKS FOREVER third. The 1.7 favourite VOYAGE WARRIOR finished 6th.

Result

Official · 0.54.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 AETHERO 0.54.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Moore 5 4.3 2-1/2
2 3 BIG TIME BABY K C Leung · K L Man 1 128.0 2-1/2
3 5 THANKS FOREVER CP C Schofield · J Moore 12 7.3 4-1/2
4 10 CUE THE MUSIC L Hewitson · D E Ferraris 14 110.0 5
5 8 MULTIMILLION B/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz 6 26.0 5
6 6 VOYAGE WARRIOR TT1 Z Purton · P F Yiu 7 1.7 5-1/4
7 14 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT T H So · W Y So 3 224.0 5-1/2
8 11 PERFECT GLORY H N Wong · C Fownes 13 135.0 6-1/2
9 2 DRAGON GENERAL B-/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 2 132.0 6-3/4
10 4 REFINED TREASURE XB A Domeyer · A T Millard 9 13.0 6-3/4
11 13 SEVEN HEAVENS B/H/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 10 18.0 7
12 9 STORM SIGNAL B/XB/TT- C Y Ho · D J Whyte 8 36.0 7-1/4
13 1 SAUL'S SPECIAL B/H K Teetan · C W Chang 11 61.0 8
14 12 RED DESERT M F Poon · J Size 4 68.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AETHERO2. BIG TIME BABY+2.5L3. THANKS FOREVER+4.5L4. CUE THE MUSIC+5L5. MULTIMILLION+5L6. VOYAGE WARRIOR+5.25L7. TEAM SPIRIT+5.5L8. PERFECT GLORY+6.5L9. DRAGON GENERAL+6.75L10. REFINED TREASURE+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick VOYAGE WARRIOR (38.5%) finished 6th — the winner AETHERO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 VOYAGE WARRIOR 38.5% 2.60 6
2 7 AETHERO 23.2% 4.32 1
3 8 MULTIMILLION 9.0% 11.11 5
4 12 RED DESERT 6.3% 15.76 14
5 5 THANKS FOREVER 4.6% 21.69 3
6 1 SAUL'S SPECIAL 4.1% 24.41 13
7 4 REFINED TREASURE 3.5% 28.69 10
8 13 SEVEN HEAVENS 2.8% 36.10 11
9 3 BIG TIME BABY 2.0% 50.19 2
10 9 STORM SIGNAL 1.8% 54.77 12
11 2 DRAGON GENERAL 1.5% 66.12 9
12 10 CUE THE MUSIC 1.0% 99.52 4
13 11 PERFECT GLORY 1.0% 102.51 8
14 14 TEAM SPIRIT 0.8% 131.71 7
VOYAGE WARRIORAETHERO — wonMULTIMILLIONRED DESERTTHANKS FOREVERSAUL'S SPECIALREFINED TREASURESEVEN HEAVENSBIG TIME BABYSTORM SIGNALDRAGON GENERALCUE THE MUSICPERFECT GLORYTEAM SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 43.5

PLACE

3 194.5

5 19.5

7 14.5

QUINELLA

3,7 2,217.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 847.5

3,7 493

5,7 40

TIERCE

7,3,5 23,448

TRIO

3,5,7 4,054

FIRST 4

3,5,7,10 44,986

QUARTET

7,3,5,10 1,102,625

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 12.5

A2

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

11/3 743.5

11/7 118