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Sha Tin · 2019-10-12

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2019-10-12 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. KING'S RACE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K H Ting, won by 1, with FUN TIMES second and VITAL SPRING third. The winner led throughout. The 3.3 favourite FUN TIMES finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 KING'S RACE Wire to wire CP1/TT 1.21.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K H Ting 1 25.0 1
2 9 FUN TIMES Closed strongly B K Teetan · A T Millard 8 3.3 1
3 12 VITAL SPRING Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 6.2 1
4 6 IMPECCABLE FELLOW Closed strongly B/H N Callan · R Gibson 5 35.0 3-1/4
5 10 VILLA FIONN Closed strongly B A Domeyer · P F Yiu 12 8.7 3-1/2
6 2 CENTRAL EXPRESS Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size 2 16.0 4
7 1 STARSHIP Closed strongly B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 3 4.5 4-3/4
8 11 LITTLE GENERAL Closed strongly CP G van Niekerk · C S Shum 13 6.3 5
9 13 LOTUS BREEZE Closed strongly B/XB/TT C Schofield · W Y So 14 44.0 7-1/2
10 4 KELMIMI WINS H T Mo · C H Yip 10 250.0 7-1/2
11 3 INCREDIBLE TT K C Leung · K L Man 11 319.0 8-1/2
12 8 SHANGHAI RUSKY H M L Yeung · T P Yung 4 275.0 9-3/4
13 14 MCMUNIGAL B2/TT T H So · D J Hall 7 210.0 11-1/4
14 5 SMART ROCKET CP R Bayliss · J Moore 9 10.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KING'S RACE2. FUN TIMES+1L3. VITAL SPRING+1L4. IMPECCABLE FELLOW+3.25L5. VILLA FIONN+3.5L6. CENTRAL EXPRESS+4L7. STARSHIP+4.75L8. LITTLE GENERAL+5L9. LOTUS BREEZE+7.5L10. KELMIMI WINS+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick FUN TIMES (21.9%) finished 2nd — the winner KING'S RACE was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 FUN TIMES 21.9% 4.57 2
2 1 STARSHIP 13.4% 7.49 7
3 11 LITTLE GENERAL 10.1% 9.88 8
4 2 CENTRAL EXPRESS 9.4% 10.68 6
5 12 VITAL SPRING 9.4% 10.69 3
6 5 SMART ROCKET 8.9% 11.22 14
7 7 KING'S RACE 8.7% 11.49 1
8 10 VILLA FIONN 7.3% 13.75 5
9 13 LOTUS BREEZE 5.1% 19.64 9
10 6 IMPECCABLE FELLOW 1.9% 52.74 4
11 14 MCMUNIGAL 1.7% 59.12 13
12 3 INCREDIBLE 1.2% 83.76 11
13 4 KELMIMI WINS 0.6% 162.78 10
14 8 SHANGHAI RUSKY 0.6% 180.94 12
FUN TIMESSTARSHIPLITTLE GENERALCENTRAL EXPRESSVITAL SPRINGSMART ROCKETKING'S RACE — wonVILLA FIONNLOTUS BREEZEIMPECCABLE FELLOWMCMUNIGALINCREDIBLEKELMIMI WINSSHANGHAI RUSKY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 252

PLACE

7 55.5

9 14

12 22

QUINELLA

7,9 472.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,9 146

7,12 160.5

9,12 38

TIERCE

7,9,12 6,171

TRIO

7,9,12 685

FIRST 4

6,7,9,12 4,790

QUARTET

7,9,12,6 140,028

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,12/7,9,12 9,351

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 31

3RD DOUBLE

5/7 1,601

5/9 92