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Sha Tin · 2019-11-03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2019-11-03 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RELENTLESS ME, ridden by K H Chan and trained by D J Whyte, won by 3/4, with DESTIN second and CITY LEGEND third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 RELENTLESS ME Wire to wire B/XB 1.21.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · D J Whyte 1 3.6 3/4
2 7 DESTIN Closed strongly B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 12 7.3 3/4
3 4 CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B Z Purton · T P Yung 3 3.9 1-1/4
4 5 JOYFUL HEART TT N Callan · F C Lor 6 63.0 2
5 10 VITAL SPRING Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 12.0 2-1/4
6 14 FANTASTIC SHOW Closed strongly H W Lai · Y S Tsui 13 94.0 3-3/4
7 11 BREAK RECORD Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 8 21.0 4-1/4
8 12 CASIMIRO G van Niekerk · C H Yip 14 18.0 5
9 6 SPRINT FORWARD Closed strongly CP/XB/TT R Bayliss · J Moore 11 11.0 6-1/4
10 1 COLORADO HIGH J Moreira · R Gibson 7 5.4 7
11 3 CENTRAL EXPRESS B Shinn · J Size 9 29.0 7-1/2
12 13 CHAPARRAL STAR H-/PC-/XB-/TT1 H N Wong · C Fownes 2 118.0 8-1/4
13 9 FOREVER BRIGHT B A Sanna · P F Yiu 5 127.0 8-3/4
14 8 SMILING SUCCESS CP1/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 4 49.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RELENTLESS ME2. DESTIN+0.75L3. CITY LEGEND+1.25L4. JOYFUL HEART+2L5. VITAL SPRING+2.25L6. FANTASTIC SHOW+3.75L7. BREAK RECORD+4.25L8. CASIMIRO+5L9. SPRINT FORWARD+6.25L10. COLORADO HIGH+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick COLORADO HIGH (21.0%) finished 10th — the winner RELENTLESS ME was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 COLORADO HIGH 21.0% 4.76 10
2 2 RELENTLESS ME 19.0% 5.25 1
3 10 VITAL SPRING 13.4% 7.48 5
4 7 DESTIN 12.3% 8.14 2
5 4 CITY LEGEND 12.2% 8.18 3
6 6 SPRINT FORWARD 6.1% 16.44 9
7 3 CENTRAL EXPRESS 4.9% 20.45 11
8 5 JOYFUL HEART 2.8% 35.76 4
9 12 CASIMIRO 2.3% 42.72 8
10 11 BREAK RECORD 1.5% 68.19 7
11 14 FANTASTIC SHOW 1.3% 75.82 6
12 8 SMILING SUCCESS 1.2% 80.06 14
13 13 CHAPARRAL STAR 1.2% 82.92 12
14 9 FOREVER BRIGHT 0.7% 140.67 13
COLORADO HIGHRELENTLESS ME — wonVITAL SPRINGDESTINCITY LEGENDSPRINT FORWARDCENTRAL EXPRESSJOYFUL HEARTCASIMIROBREAK RECORDFANTASTIC SHOWSMILING SUCCESSCHAPARRAL STARFOREVER BRIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 36

PLACE

2 15.5

4 16

7 24.5

QUINELLA

2,7 121.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 33

2,7 45.5

4,7 54.5

TIERCE

2,7,4 716

TRIO

2,4,7 134

FIRST 4

2,4,5,7 1,811

QUARTET

2,7,4,5 23,385

3 PICK 1

A2 20.5

A1

A3

All pools (1 more)

4TH DOUBLE

9/2 77.5

9/7 40