Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2019-11-03

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2019-11-03 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CORDYCEPS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with BEAUTY DAY second and DEFINING MOMENT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite BELLAGIO finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.33.30
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 CORDYCEPS Closed strongly B 1.33.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 11.0 3/4
2 8 BEAUTY DAY Led early B/H K H Chan · T P Yung 5 5.7 3/4
3 13 DEFINING MOMENT Closed strongly B- M Chadwick · C Fownes 1 20.0 1-1/4
4 5 PACKING WARRIOR Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 4 6.7 1-1/4
5 2 COT CAMPBELL Closed strongly B/XB G van Niekerk · A T Millard 3 14.0 1-1/2
6 14 BELLAGIO B J Moreira · P F Yiu 14 4.3 3-1/4
7 11 SMART PATCH Closed strongly B A Badel · K L Man 8 12.0 3-3/4
8 7 CHAMPION SUPREME B/TT Z Purton · J Moore 9 4.5 4-3/4
9 4 COOL TEAM CP B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 7 23.0 5
10 12 SMILING PRIDE B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 2 21.0 5
11 6 VINCY B/TT C Schofield · F C Lor 13 23.0 8-1/4
12 9 JIMMU Closed strongly B/SR1 H W Lai · Y S Tsui 11 206.0 8-1/2
13 3 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT B A Sanna · J Moore 6 224.0 8-3/4
14 10 UNICRON JEWELLERY B U Rispoli · J Size 12 92.0 29-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CORDYCEPS2. BEAUTY DAY+0.75L3. DEFINING MOMENT+1.25L4. PACKING WARRIOR+1.25L5. COT CAMPBELL+1.5L6. BELLAGIO+3.25L7. SMART PATCH+3.75L8. CHAMPION SUPREME+4.75L9. COOL TEAM+5L10. SMILING PRIDE+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BELLAGIO (30.1%) finished 6th — the winner CORDYCEPS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 14 BELLAGIO 30.1% 3.32 6
2 1 CORDYCEPS 8.9% 11.19 1
3 7 CHAMPION SUPREME 8.6% 11.64 8
4 11 SMART PATCH 8.2% 12.19 7
5 8 BEAUTY DAY 8.2% 12.26 2
6 6 VINCY 7.1% 14.03 11
7 4 COOL TEAM 6.2% 16.12 9
8 2 COT CAMPBELL 5.7% 17.59 5
9 12 SMILING PRIDE 5.2% 19.16 10
10 5 PACKING WARRIOR 5.1% 19.66 4
11 13 DEFINING MOMENT 3.7% 27.12 3
12 10 UNICRON JEWELLERY 2.1% 48.05 14
13 3 LAOS ENLIGHTENMENT 0.5% 202.37 13
14 9 JIMMU 0.4% 226.86 12
BELLAGIOCORDYCEPS — wonCHAMPION SUPREMESMART PATCHBEAUTY DAYVINCYCOOL TEAMCOT CAMPBELLSMILING PRIDEPACKING WARRIORDEFINING MOMENTUNICRON JEWELLERYLAOS ENLIGHTENMENTJIMMU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 118

PLACE

1 32

8 18.5

13 52

QUINELLA

1,8 282

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 96.5

1,13 340

8,13 162.5

TIERCE

1,8,13 9,081

TRIO

1,8,13 2,382

FIRST 4

1,5,8,13 2,402

QUARTET

1,8,13,5 59,802

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 28

A2

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

13/1 2,737

13/8 220