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Sha Tin · 2019-11-03

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2019-11-03 was Class 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MORE THAN THIS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with NICCONI EXPRESS second and HAPPY FUN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite STAR PERFORMANCE finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.33.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 MORE THAN THIS Closed strongly 1.33.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K W Lui 12 5.1 1
2 11 NICCONI EXPRESS Closed strongly P1 C Schofield · J Size 11 26.0 1
3 9 HAPPY FUN Led early B/TT K H Chan · C S Shum 2 4.9 1
4 3 HELENE LEADINGSTAR Closed strongly XB/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 1 20.0 1-1/2
5 1 HEZTHEWONFORUS SR B Shinn · J Size 6 9.1 2-1/2
6 12 BAND OF BROTHERS A Badel · P O'Sullivan 10 8.9 3
7 5 STAR PERFORMANCE Closed strongly H/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 4 4.5 3-3/4
8 8 EASY GO EASY WIN Closed strongly SR/XB A Sanna · D J Whyte 8 42.0 5
9 4 ENJOYING B1/XB1 Z Purton · J Moore 7 10.0 6
10 6 DANCES WITH DRAGON H/P/TT K C Leung · L Ho 5 23.0 6-1/4
11 7 THE HULK PC/XB M Chadwick · C Fownes 9 14.0 6-3/4
12 13 WIND GLIDER T H So · P O'Sullivan 13 204.0 7-1/2
13 2 KING OPIE V G van Niekerk · F C Lor 3 18.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MORE THAN THIS2. NICCONI EXPRESS+1L3. HAPPY FUN+1L4. HELENE LEADINGSTAR+1.5L5. HEZTHEWONFORUS+2.5L6. BAND OF BROTHERS+3L7. STAR PERFORMANCE+3.75L8. EASY GO EASY WIN+5L9. ENJOYING+6L10. DANCES WITH DRAGON+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick STAR PERFORMANCE (23.6%) finished 7th — the winner MORE THAN THIS was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 STAR PERFORMANCE 23.6% 4.24 7
2 9 HAPPY FUN 16.6% 6.03 3
3 12 BAND OF BROTHERS 16.0% 6.27 6
4 4 ENJOYING 12.2% 8.21 9
5 10 MORE THAN THIS 7.8% 12.75 1
6 1 HEZTHEWONFORUS 5.3% 18.84 5
7 11 NICCONI EXPRESS 5.1% 19.58 2
8 2 KING OPIE 3.2% 31.60 13
9 7 THE HULK 2.8% 36.36 11
10 6 DANCES WITH DRAGON 2.3% 43.34 10
11 3 HELENE LEADINGSTAR 2.2% 45.53 4
12 8 EASY GO EASY WIN 2.0% 49.51 8
13 13 WIND GLIDER 1.0% 97.11 12
STAR PERFORMANCEHAPPY FUNBAND OF BROTHERSENJOYINGMORE THAN THIS — wonHEZTHEWONFORUSNICCONI EXPRESSKING OPIETHE HULKDANCES WITH DRAGONHELENE LEADINGSTAREASY GO EASY WINWIND GLIDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 51.5

PLACE

9 18.5

10 20.5

11 66

QUINELLA

10,11 1,075.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,10 59.5

9,11 209.5

10,11 297.5

TIERCE

10,11,9 11,087

TRIO

9,10,11 1,554

FIRST 4

3,9,10,11 7,499

QUARTET

10,11,9,3 183,396

3 PICK 1

A1 24

A2

A3

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,13/9,10,11 371,407

9TH DOUBLE

1/10 929

1/11 1,158.5

SIX UP

2,7/1,6/2,5/11,13/1,8/10,11 29,819

3 [K Teetan]

TREBLE

13/1/10 14,546

13/1/11 15,348