Happy Valley · 2019-12-18
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | HAPPY HOUR Closed strongly E/TT 1.39.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 3 | 2.8 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | KEEP WINNING Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 8 | 23.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | GOLDEN CANNON Closed strongly B/H/XB N Callan · K W Lui | N Callan | K W Lui | 4 | 18.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | KEEP GOING Led early PC- H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 2 | 39.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | MONEY MARSHAL BO M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | CALLING THE SHOTS B/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 12 | 3.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/XB/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 11 | 14.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | ASSOCIATION FANS H/SR K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 1 | 7.2 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | KWAICHUNG BROTHERS B A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 7 | 17.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | SKY GEM Closed strongly V/TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 9 | 14.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | SOLAR BILLION B/TT H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 5 | 57.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 0 | GUERDON HELMET B T H So · K L Man | T H So | K L Man | 6 | 210.0 | 15 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-18 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HAPPY HOUR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by 2, with KEEP WINNING second and GOLDEN CANNON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CALLING THE SHOTS | 21.6% | 4.63 | 6 |
| 2 | 0 | HAPPY HOUR | 16.2% | 6.19 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | WONDERFUL TIGER | 9.9% | 10.08 | 7 |
| 4 | 0 | ASSOCIATION FANS | 9.6% | 10.45 | 8 |
| 5 | 0 | KWAICHUNG BROTHERS | 8.8% | 11.35 | 9 |
| 6 | 0 | SKY GEM | 8.5% | 11.80 | 10 |
| 7 | 0 | GOLDEN CANNON | 8.0% | 12.52 | 3 |
| 8 | 0 | MONEY MARSHAL | 7.4% | 13.56 | 5 |
| 9 | 0 | KEEP WINNING | 4.1% | 24.22 | 2 |
| 10 | 0 | GUERDON HELMET | 2.3% | 44.23 | 12 |
| 11 | 0 | SOLAR BILLION | 1.9% | 52.19 | 11 |
| 12 | 0 | KEEP GOING | 1.8% | 56.30 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 28
PLACE
4 14
5 46
9 59
QUINELLA
4,9 383.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 85
4,9 122.5
5,9 469
TIERCE
4,9,5 4,980
TRIO
4,5,9 1,305
FIRST 4
4,5,9,12 8,260
QUARTET
4,9,5,12 86,020
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 15.5
A2 —