Happy Valley · 2019-12-18
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-18 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BIG PARTY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-3/4, with TORNADO TWIST second and LOBO'S LEGEND third. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BIG PARTY 1.08.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 5 | 3.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | TORNADO TWIST E/TT B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 9 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 11 | LOBO'S LEGEND S De Sousa · D E Ferraris | S De Sousa | D E Ferraris | 1 | 4.2 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | LOVING A BOOM B/XB/TT1 A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 12 | 20.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | SUPER TURBO B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 2 | 7.5 | 4 |
| 6 | 7 | MULTIMILLION B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 23.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | TELECOM PUMA TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 4 | 62.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | SEVEN HEAVENS B-/H-/TT C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 10 | 58.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | UGLY WARRIOR B1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 7 | 46.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | SPEEDY KING K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 3 | 15.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 12 | STRONGER CP M Chadwick · J Moore | M Chadwick | J Moore | 6 | 3.8 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 5 | HIGH FIVE G van Niekerk · A T Millard | G van Niekerk | A T Millard | 11 | 62.0 | 15-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BIG PARTY | 40.5% | 2.47 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | STRONGER | 11.4% | 8.80 | 11 |
| 3 | 7 | MULTIMILLION | 8.9% | 11.27 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | LOBO'S LEGEND | 7.5% | 13.42 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | TORNADO TWIST | 6.1% | 16.51 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | LOVING A BOOM | 5.3% | 18.72 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | SEVEN HEAVENS | 4.3% | 23.34 | 8 |
| 8 | 1 | UGLY WARRIOR | 4.3% | 23.43 | 9 |
| 9 | 2 | SPEEDY KING | 3.9% | 25.75 | 10 |
| 10 | 5 | HIGH FIVE | 3.2% | 31.15 | 12 |
| 11 | 9 | SUPER TURBO | 3.1% | 32.47 | 5 |
| 12 | 10 | TELECOM PUMA | 1.7% | 58.22 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 34
PLACE
3 36
4 15
11 15.5
QUINELLA
3,4 302
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 95.5
3,11 86.5
4,11 31
TIERCE
4,3,11 2,157
TRIO
3,4,11 392
FIRST 4
3,4,6,11 937
QUARTET
4,3,11,6 17,301
3 PICK 1
A1 18
A3 —
A2 —
All pools (3 more)
8TH DOUBLE
6,11/3 38.5
6,11/4 38
SIX UP
1,9/5,10/1,10/4,10/6,11,12/3,4 9,925
9/5/10/10/6,11/4 70,577
3 [K Teetan] —
TREBLE
10/6,11/3 248
10/6,11/4 261