Happy Valley · 2019-12-18
Race 3
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | LIGHTNING STEED Closed strongly TT 1.39.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 9 | 47.0 | HD |
| 2 | 0 | THUNDER STOMP Closed strongly J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 6 | 6.0 | HD |
| 3 | 0 | RULETHEROOST Closed strongly CP Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 2 | 3.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | ORIENTAL ELITE Closed strongly N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 15.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 0 | BEST ALLIANCE Closed strongly XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 12 | 6.4 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | PLAY WISE Closed strongly B M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 5 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | LITTLE THUNDER S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 3 | 9.8 | 3 |
| 8 | 0 | ALL YOU KNOW B/H/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 1 | 5.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 0 | DREAM WARRIORS Closed strongly CP/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 11 | 16.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | KANBEKI MOLLY SR C Schofield · P F Yiu | C Schofield | P F Yiu | 7 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | PHENOMENAL Led early B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 4 | 113.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | GOOD RUNNERS WAY B/TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 8 | 89.0 | 13 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2019-12-18 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LIGHTNING STEED, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C Fownes, won by HD, with THUNDER STOMP second and RULETHEROOST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite RULETHEROOST finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | THUNDER STOMP | 24.1% | 4.15 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | DREAM WARRIORS | 15.4% | 6.47 | 9 |
| 3 | 0 | RULETHEROOST | 10.9% | 9.21 | 3 |
| 4 | 0 | KANBEKI MOLLY | 10.8% | 9.24 | 10 |
| 5 | 0 | LITTLE THUNDER | 8.1% | 12.38 | 7 |
| 6 | 0 | PLAY WISE | 7.4% | 13.43 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | BEST ALLIANCE | 5.7% | 17.52 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | ORIENTAL ELITE | 5.5% | 18.07 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | ALL YOU KNOW | 5.5% | 18.09 | 8 |
| 10 | 0 | GOOD RUNNERS WAY | 3.0% | 33.54 | 12 |
| 11 | 0 | LIGHTNING STEED | 2.7% | 36.44 | 1 |
| 12 | 0 | PHENOMENAL | 0.8% | 128.80 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 470
PLACE
2 15.5
6 21.5
11 113
QUINELLA
6,11 1,682
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 51
2,11 241.5
6,11 435.5
TIERCE
11,6,2 21,169
TRIO
2,6,11 1,720
FIRST 4
2,5,6,11 6,653
QUARTET
11,6,2,5 266,587
2ND DOUBLE
1/6 58
1/11 2,852.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 29.5